Russia's successes in Avdiivka are limited and price is high – UK intelligence

The UK Defence Ministry has assessed Russian attempts to encircle Avdiivka and predicts that Russian success in the area is unlikely to come soon.

Source: UK Defence Ministry intelligence review dated 16 January on X (formerly Twitter); European Pravda 

Details: The UK Defence Ministry noted that over the past week, neither Russian nor Ukrainian troops have gained any significant positions at the contact line.  

Despite the progress made in capturing Marinka at the end of December 2023, Russia could not take advantage of this and move either west to Kurakhove or south to Novomykhailivka. 

The encirclement of Avdiivka probably remains a key focus of Russian efforts, but to date, Russia has achieved minimal territorial success at significant cost, both in material and human terms.

The northern village of Stepove remains under the control of Ukraine, which provides access to the supply route to Avdiivka. UK observers say Russian efforts to isolate the city are unlikely for at least the following week.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian marines continue to hold a bridgehead in Krynky on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, despite Russia's attempts to drive them out.  

They will likely continue to fight for this territory for the next week. 

Background:

• Earlier, UK Defence Intelligence stated that statements made about the replenishment of the Russian army in 2023 by another 500,000 people are an exaggeration.
• UK intelligence also analysed the impact of FPV drones on the situation on the left bank of the Kherson Oblast.

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