Russia prepares to launch new offensive but will not have operational breakthroughs – ISW

According to data analysed by experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russians are preparing for a new offensive but, according to a preliminary assessment, will not be able to make operationally significant breakthroughs.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Russian sources claim that Russian troops are preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks as soon as the ground freezes in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Sergei Pereslegin, a Russian literary critic and alternative history theorist, said that the Russians will launch a large-scale offensive in Ukraine sometime between 12 January and 2 February after the ground freezes and probably after Ukrainian troops become "exhausted" from defending their positions in Avdiivka and on the eastern (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.

He also expressed concern that Russia does not have enough manpower to carry out the large-scale offensive he has predicted.

A Russian military blogger said on 14 January that the number of Russian troops at the front allows the Russians to conduct local tactical manoeuvres but that there are unlikely to be any operationally significant "breakthroughs".

He claimed that the freezing weather was affecting Russian and Ukrainian ground activity, artillery and unmanned systems along the entire frontline, especially on the Kherson front.

Another Russian blogger said that the frost was preventing Russian troops from conducting ground operations and advancing north of Verbove in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported that Russian aircraft could not operate in southern Ukraine due to weather conditions.

Dmitry Rogozin, the former head of the Russian space agency Roscosmos, said that the front line in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast is "buzzing like a beehive" due to the large number of Ukrainian drones.

He claimed that Ukrainian forces are allocating drones to strike every important target in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and that the intensive use of Ukrainian drones makes it difficult for Russian personnel to rotate.

According to a previous assessment by ISW, sub-zero temperatures in Ukraine are likely to deter operations on the front line for now, but the terrain is likely to become more favourable for mechanised manoeuvre warfare as the ground freezes.

At the same time, analysts continue to assess that Russian forces are likely to try to maintain or intensify localised offensives in eastern Ukraine in an attempt to seize and retain the initiative despite the winter weather and terrain conditions.

ISW also estimates that the Russian forces will not be able to make operationally significant breakthroughs.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 14 January: 

• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks once the ground freezes in eastern and southern Ukraine. 
• Russian forces likely continue to experiment and adapt their missile and drone strike packages against Ukraine in an effort to penetrate Ukrainian air defences. 
• Representatives from 83 countries met to discuss the implementation of Ukraine’s Peace Formula on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on 14 January.
• The Kremlin continues to undertake measures to undermine the Republic of Tatarstan’s autonomy within the Russian Federation and cultural heritage despite the republic’s sacrifices on behalf of the Russian war in Ukraine. 
• The Russian Investigative Committee will officially open a case into the fire that destroyed a large Wildberries warehouse in St. Petersburg.
• Positional engagements continued along the Kupyansk-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.
• Moscow-based international exhibition-forum "Russia" opened the Russian Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) "Army of Children" exhibit on 14 January to educate children about the military and careers in the Russian Armed Forces.
• Swedish Defence Materiel Administration announced on 14 January that it had signed an agreement with Nordic Ammunition Company (Nammo) to increase the production and deliveries of 155mm artillery ammunition to support Ukraine’s needs.
• The Kremlin is funding select non-profit organisations operating in occupied areas that propagate Kremlin social narratives.

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