Kremlin might use Transnistria to block Ukraine's grain corridor – ISW

The Kremlin may try to exploit false flag operations in Transnistria to undermine Ukrainian grain exports along the western Black Sea coast, to claim that Russia must protect ethnic Russians and Russian speakers, and to stir up instability in Moldova.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The institute’s analysts recall that on 10 January, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it had summoned the ambassador of Moldova to express disapproval of Moldova's "unfriendly actions," which included "cases of discrimination against Russian citizens entering Moldova" and "politically motivated persecution of Russian and Russian-language media."

The Russian Foreign Ministry said menacingly that if such actions continue, "the Russian side reserves the right to take additional retaliatory measures."

Russia's Foreign Ministry also claimed that there have been media reports suggesting that Moldova intends to help NATO train Ukrainian forces on Moldovan soil. This would indicate Moldova’s "direct involvement" in hostilities on the side of Ukraine, the Russians claim.

The Kremlin has recently increased its use of terms like "compatriots abroad" and the "Russian World", which it frequently invokes in order to assert its right to defend ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking people living outside its borders.

At the same time, it is recalled that Russia, in particular, used such excuses when it carried out a military intervention in favour of separatist Transnistria in 1992.

The ISW says the Kremlin probably tried to create information conditions for a possible false flag operation in Transnistria in April 2022 and February 2023, but failed partly for economic reasons.

The institute had previously assessed that the Kremlin had failed to draw Transnistria into its war in Ukraine at the time, as Transnistrian business – especially that of Moldovan-Russian businessman Viktor Gushan, who effectively controls the Transnistrian government and much of its economy – benefited from ties with the West and Ukraine.

The EU’s Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between the EU and Moldova allowed Transnistrian companies registered in Moldova to enjoy duty-free access to EU markets subject to Moldovan customs checks.

These benefits might have been compromised by recent modifications to the Moldovan Customs Code that require Transnistrian businesses to pay import taxes to Moldova, the review says.

Moldova has also stated in recent months its readiness to first join the EU without Transnistria, which will further deprive Transnistrian firms of special access to EU markets.

Experts emphasise that the Kremlin may consider the operation under a false flag in Transnistria as an alternative way to keep countries from participating in the Ukrainian grain corridor, despite the weakening of the Russian presence in the western part of the Black Sea.

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