Ukrainian forces drive Russian army out of two positions near Avdiivka coke plant – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that the Ukrainian Defence Forces have launched a counterattack north of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant (ACCP), forcing the Russian occupying army to retreat from two of their forward positions.

Source: ISW

Details: Ukrainian forces mounted a counterattack near the town of Avdiivka on 5 December and have recently made confirmed advances.

Geolocation footage released on 4 December revealed that Ukrainian troops had advanced east of a railway section north of the ACCP.

A Ukrainian military observer reported on 5 December that Ukrainian units counterattacked north of the ACCP and forced the Russian soldiers to retreat from two forward positions.

A Russian military blogger (milblogger) claimed that Ukrainian troops had launched a counterattack near the village of Stepove and exerted pressure on Russian defences from the area of the settlement of Novokalynove.

At the same time, the Russian occupying troops pursued their offensive near Avdiivka on 5 December and achieved confirmed successes.

Geolocation data released on 5 December indicates that Russian forces advanced along a railway line section north of the ACCP in northwestern Avdiivka.

Furthermore, geolocation data released on 4 December revealed that the Russians had also advanced south of the Avdiivka waste heap.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces had repelled at least 23 Russian attacks east of the settlement of Novobakhmutivka (7 km north-west of Avdiivka), northeast of the village of Berdychi (4 km north of Avdiivka), and around the settlements of Stepove (3 km north of Avdiivka), Avdiivka, Siverske (6 km west of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (11 km south-west of Avdiivka).

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops had pushed forward on 4 and 5 December near Novokalynove (8 km north of Avdiivka), Stepove, the ACCP, the Avdiivka waste heap, the industrial area southeast of Avdiivka, Sieverne and Pervomaiske.

They also claimed that positional fighting was continuing near Krasnohorivka (4 km northeast of Avdiivka) on 4 and 5 December and that Russian troops had resumed assaults near Nevelske (14 km southwest of Avdiivka).

The press service of the Tavriia Group of Ukrainian Forces reported on 5 December that Russian troops had resumed air strikes using Su-25 attack aircraft and Ka-52 helicopters in the area of Avdiivka after a lull in Russian aircraft activity.

To quote the ISW’s key takeaways on 5 December:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea on the night of 4 to 5 December.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine on the night of 4 to 5 December.
• The Russian State Duma will reportedly consider a proposed bill that would recognise the Sea of Azov as an internal Russian body of water, likely setting conditions to coerce recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied Crimea and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk oblasts.
• Russian opposition party Yabloko founder Grigory Yavlinsky advocated for a ceasefire in Ukraine as part of his presidential bid, likely in an attempt to distinguish himself from Russian President Vladimir Putin and give voice to Russians who support a ceasefire.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasised the benefits that migrants provide to the Russian economy, while promoting ongoing efforts to Russify migrants in Russia and citizens of post-Soviet countries.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia on 6 December and will host Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in Russia on 7 December — a bout of diplomatic outreach likely focused on strengthening Russia’s position with Gulf States while continuing to solidify the deepening Russian-Iranian security partnership.
• Armenia appears to be effectively abstaining from participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).
• The Kremlin continues to intensify censorship efforts, targeting prominent Russian messaging and social media app Telegram.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.
• Russian forces are reportedly quickly sending poorly trained convict recruits to reinforce assaults elements in Ukraine.
• Russian occupation authorities are reportedly intensifying their seizure of Ukrainian property in occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

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