Ukrainian drones strike many targets in Russia – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have assessed that Ukrainian drones launched over the past day likely hit many of their intended targets in Russia, as evidenced by a difference in numbers: the Ukrainians announced more than 70 drones launched, the Russians said 32 had been intercepted.

Source: ISW

Details: Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a large series of strikes on targets in Russia on the night of 29-30 December and 30 December. Ukrainian security sources told Western and Ukrainian media that on the night of 29-30 December, Ukrainian forces launched more than 70 drones at Russian military infrastructure and defence and industrial facilities near Moscow, Belgorod, Tula, Tver and Bryansk.

Ukrainian sources described the strikes as a response to the 29 December Russian attack, which was the largest series of unmanned and missile strikes on Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion.

The Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces intercepted 32 Ukrainian drones in the Bryansk, Oryol, Kursk and Moscow oblasts on the night of 29-30 December.

Analysts note that the discrepancy between Russian and Ukrainian figures may indicate that Ukrainian forces hit many of their intended targets.

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Kremniy EL plant in Bryansk, which is Russia's second-largest microelectronics producer, with 90 percent of its products reportedly components of Russian military equipment and systems.

Geolocation footage published on 30 December shows explosions over the city of Bryansk. Moreover, the Russian Defence Ministry said Russian air defences shot down 12 Ukrainian multiple-launch missile system missiles in Belgorod Oblast on 29 December and several more Ukrainian MLRS missiles near Belgorod during the day on 30 December.

Ukrainian sources in law enforcement agencies told the media that the Ukrainian strikes on 30 December were aimed at Russian military facilities near Belgorod.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 29 December:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a large series of strikes against targets in Russia on the night of 29-30 December and on 30 December.
• Russian forces conducted a lower number of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on 30 December following the large Russian strike series on 29 December.
• Russian officials continued to clearly state that Russia is not interested in negotiating with Ukraine or the West in good faith and intends to achieve its maximalist objectives in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin’s recent public rhetoric about its maximalist objectives and imperial designs in Ukraine are permeating the Russian information space.
• Russia continues to set information conditions aimed at destabilising Moldova by framing Russia as a protector of allegedly threatened Russian-language speakers in Moldova.
• Russia continues attempts to actively shape the Western information space to support Russian positions and undermine support for Ukraine while portraying these efforts as endogenous to the West.
• The Russian Ministry Foreign Affairs (MFA) emphasised Russia’s improving diplomatic relations with non-Western countries in a way that suggests that the Kremlin is insecure about the possibility of diplomatic isolation against the backdrop of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• Russian forces made confirmed gains near Kreminna, Bakhmut and Avdiivka as positional engagements continued along the entire line of contact.
• The Russian military command reportedly continued the dissolution of the "Kaskad" operational combat tactical formation of the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) Internal Affairs Ministry (MVD) to support its efforts to formalise control over Russian irregular forces.
• Russia continues efforts to integrate education systems in occupied Ukraine and expand education programs aimed at eliminating Ukrainian identity in occupied territories.

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