Russians recapture positions near Verbove, seized by Ukrainians in summer counteroffensive – ISW
Russian troops have likely advanced in the western part of Verbove, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and recaptured positions that Ukrainian troops had seized during a counteroffensive in the summer of 2023.
Source: the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: This is likely to have occurred after Ukrainian forces withdrew to more defensible positions near Robotyne for the winter.
Geolocation footage released on 14 and 27 December shows that Russian troops have advanced to the west of Verbove (9 km east of Robotyne).
The ISW stated that the seizure of neighbouring positions by Ukrainian forces in August 2023 was tactically important, as it could have allowed Ukrainian forces to launch an operation past the densest Russian minefields and subsequent Russian defences.
However, the ISW does not believe that the recapture of these positions by Russian forces is particularly important at this point.
At the same time, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavriia Operational Strategic Group of Forces, said in an interview with BBC published on 27 December that the Russian leadership wanted to at least capture Avdiivka, but had a more ambitious goal of capturing the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, regaining the territory that Russian forces lost in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The Russian advance in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast nevertheless confirms the ISW's assessment that the current positional war in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate, as the current balance can be shifted in either direction by decisions made in the West or in Russia, and limited Russian gains may become significant, especially if the West stops military aid to Ukraine.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 27 December:
- Ukrainian drone footage published on 27 December showed another Russian execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Robotyne in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and retook positions that Ukrainian forces had captured during the summer 2023 counteroffensive, likely after Ukrainian forces withdrew to more defensible positions near Robotyne for the winter.
- The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam on 6 June 2023 reportedly postponed a Ukrainian crossing of the Dnipro River that was likely intended to support Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
- Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavriia Operational and Strategic Group of Forces, described continued Ukrainian battlefield challenges and requirements for future territorial advances during an interview with BBC published on 27 December.
- Ukrainian officials highlighted the Ukrainian defence industrial base’s (DIB) increased production in 2023 and offered projections of Ukraine’s domestic drone production capabilities on 27 December.
- Russian forces launched another series of Shahed-136/131 drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of 26-27 December.
- Satellite imagery from the successful 26 December Ukrainian strike on a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessel in occupied Feodosiia, Crimea indicates that the strike damaged the surrounding port infrastructure.
- Russia maintains its maximalist objectives in Ukraine and is uninterested in good-faith negotiations despite reports that Western officials are becoming more amenable to eventual Ukrainian negotiations with Russia to end the war.
- The Russian state-owned Public Opinion Research Center found that Russians are increasingly less trusting of Russian state TV and are turning to social media and the internet for news.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on 27 December in a likely effort to maintain Russia’s critical trade relationship with India.
- Russian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Verbove as positional engagements continued along the entire line of contact.
- A Russian insider source claimed that Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has created his own private military company (PMC).
- The Ukrainian Cyber Resistance movement obtained information about a Russian deputy commander of the 171st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (51st Air Defence Division) committing sexual crimes against minors in occupied Ukraine.
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