ISW notes Russian advance near Avdiivka and Kreminna

The Russian forces have confirmed their advance near the towns of Avdiivka (Donetsk Oblast) and Kreminna (Luhansk Oblast) on 24 December.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts reported that the Russian army had recently made gains near Avdiivka and continued positional fighting with Ukrainian troops on 24 December. Geolocation footage released on 24 December indicated that Russian elements had pushed forward east of the village of Stepove (north of Avdiivka).

ISW also noted that Russian forces had recently confirmed their progress near Kreminna. Geolocation footage released on 24 December revealed that Russian troops had made progress east of the village of Terny (west of Kreminna).

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 24 December:

• European Union (EU) Foreign Affairs High Representative Josep Borrell stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in a limited territorial victory in Ukraine and will continue the war "until the final victory."
• Russian forces are reportedly decreasing aviation activity and their use of glide bombs in Ukraine after Ukrainian forces shot down three Russian Su-34s in southern Ukraine between 21 and 22 December.
• Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of 23 to 24 December.
• Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umierov further detailed Ukraine’s efforts to establish a sustainable wartime force-generation apparatus and an effective defence industrial base (DIB) during an interview published on 24 December.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to portray himself as a gracious leader who cares about the well-being of Russian military personnel, while also presenting himself as an effective Commander-in-Chief of the Russian armed forces.
• Russia appears to be continuing its efforts to build out a military occupation force in Ukraine separate from its frontline units through the use of its newly formed Rosgvardia units.
• The Russian Black Sea Fleet’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade edited its acknowledgement that its personnel are deliberately using chemical weapons in Ukraine in a likely effort to hide what could be evidence of an apparent violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is party.
• Russia’s labour shortage, which is partially a result of the war in Ukraine, reportedly amounted to about 4.8 million people in 2023 and will likely continue to exacerbate struggling Kremlin efforts aimed at increasing Russian economic capacity.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna and near Avdiivka as positional engagements continue along the entire line of contact.
• The newly formed 337th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (104th VDV Division) operating in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky is continuing to suffer losses.
• Russian officials claimed that Russia’s handling of the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is sufficient, despite recent unsafe incidents during Russian occupation of the plant.

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