Ukrainian forces expand control in Kherson Oblast – ISW

Ukrainian troops have expanded control over their positions north of the village of Pidstepne (17 kilometres east of the city of Kherson).

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing Russian informants

Details: In addition, Ukrainian troops launched counteroffensive actions near the town of Bakhmut and the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Russian military bloggers (milbloggers) claimed that Ukrainian troops retained their positions on the eastern (left) bank part of Kherson Oblast as of 6 November.

A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger said Ukrainian forces were still holding positions in one part of the settlement of Krynky (30 kilometres east of Kherson and about 2 kilometres inland from the Dnipro River shoreline) despite Russia's attempts to push Ukrainian forces back from the left bank part of Kherson Oblast.

Another Kremlin-linked military blogger reported that Ukrainian troops had repelled a Russian attack near Krynky and that units of the Russian 177th Marine Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) were bombarding Ukrainian positions on the western (right) bank part of Kherson Oblast.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces had pursued their offensive on the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhzhia Oblast) fronts.

A prominent Russian military blogger said Ukrainian forces had launched a counterattack near the settlement of Krasnohorivka (6 kilometres northwest of the town of Avdiivka) between 3 and 5 November, forcing Russian troops to retreat from part of the railway line in the area.

A Russian armed formation, the Russian Legion (BARS-13), claimed that Ukrainian forces were successfully pressuring Russian troops near the village of Stepove and the Tsarskaia Okhota restaurant south of Avdiivka.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 6 November:

• Imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin argued that Russian forces will be "even less capable of offensive operations than they are now" by spring 2024 given the current nature of Russian offensive operations along the frontline.
• Select Russian milbloggers specifically argued that the use of small infantry assaults groups will allow both Russian and Ukrainian forces to better achieve operational objectives along the front. Russian sources suggested that some Ukrainian forces may already be fielding the small infantry assault groups that these sources are advocating for.
• The war in Ukraine is likely exacerbating an emerging identity crisis within Russian society resulting from tensions between Russian identity and Russian nationalism.
• Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes against rear areas in southern Ukraine on the evening of 5 November and on the night of 5 to 6 November as well as the largest series of glide bomb strikes to date against targets in Kherson Oblast on 5 November.
• The Russian military appears to have increased its stock of high-precision missiles due to reported increases in Russian missile production more rapidly than previous forecasts had suggested.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on 6 November.
• Russian occupation officials are expanding military recruitment and registration offices in occupied territories, likely in support of coercive mobilisation efforts.
• Russian officials continue to weaponise youth engagement programs to consolidate social control of occupied areas of Ukraine.

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