Imprisoned Russian pro-war nationalist Girkin writes letter on situation at front
Terrorist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin believes that Russian forces will be "less capable of offensive operations than they are now" by the spring of 2024.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: Girkin's wife Miroslava Reginskaya made public a handwritten letter from her husband dated 26 October, in which he summarised the front-line situation in Ukraine for the month of October.
He stated that the situation for Russian forces is "gradually deteriorating" and that Russian forces are showing "growing weakness (compared to [Ukraine’s] capabilities" despite Russia's "generally successful repulsion" of the Ukrainian offensive in the summer and autumn of 2023.
Girkin argued that Russian forces not only failed to launch large-scale offensive operations at the beginning of autumn but also failed to complete even limited offensive operations to achieve operationally significant goals, namely near Kupiansk, Lyman, and Avdiivka.
He added that tactical advances around Avdiivka had resulted in significant losses of Russian personnel.
Girkin suggested that Russia's efforts to repulse Ukrainian localised front-line attacks and simultaneous autumn-winter offensive operations are likely to degrade Russia's offensive and defensive capabilities by the spring of 2024.
He added that Russian forces will have to spend the rest of the autumn-winter campaign on the defensive to handle emerging operational crises, such as the Ukrainian presence on the eastern (left) bank of Kherson Oblast. Girkin claimed that the Russian troops will continue to be "incapable of any broad offensive actions", even if the Ukrainian troops are unable to "knock out" the Russian advanced units, fail to achieve a breakthrough in the autumn-winter season, and will be exhausted.
Girkin added, however, that such a "positional scenario" is not guaranteed and that he fears that Ukrainian forces could successfully break Russian forces, which are already exhausted by months of fighting.
Girkin's suggestion that current Russian offensive operations are damaging the prospects for future Russian operations is noteworthy because Russian forces still have to repel Ukrainian offensive operations while trying to initiate offensive actions of their own. The timing of the current Russian offensives around Avdiivka has also been somewhat strange and less than optimal, with rainy and slushy weather predictably hampering Russian operations.
Girkin hinted that additional Western military aid to Ukraine and a lack of mobilisation in Russia could allow Ukraine to end its positional warfare and conduct successful offensive operations in 2024. Girkin stated that the Ukrainian forces are continuing to use the supplies provided by the West to attack the Russian rear and even destroy the Berdiansk airfield in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast against the background of the Russian offensive in Avdiivka.
Girkin hinted that Ukrainian forces will continue to ravage Russian rear throughout the winter as Russian forces continue to insist on limited offensive operations.
He also stated that once Ukraine receives Western-made F-16 fighter jets, Ukrainian forces will be able to have local advantages for a short time on any part of the front line.
Girkin added that Ukraine could be "seriously strengthened in military-technical terms" by Western military equipment. He also argued that Ukraine currently has a manpower advantage over Russian forces due to the lack of mobilisation in Russia and that the Kremlin is unlikely to call for mobilisation before the spring of 2024 due to the upcoming presidential election.
He noted that the Ministry of Defence of Russia is unlikely to recruit "hundreds of thousands" of new contract servicemen, as Russia has exhausted its capacity to recruit new contract servicemen and volunteers.
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