Russia prepares to attack Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant – ISW

A Ukrainian military observer has reported that Russian forces have crossed the railway line near the village of Stepove (3 kilometres north of the town of Avdiivka) and have been preparing to attack the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant (ACCP) in the northern part of Avdiivka from these newly captured positions.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Furthermore, the Russian media aggregator claimed that the Russian troops approached the ACCP on 1 November.

A Russian military blogger (milblogger) reported that Russian forces launched mixed missile strikes and airstrikes on the ACCP on 1 November, adding that Ukrainian air defences had hindered powerful blows to the area.

The Russian army kept on with its offensive in the area of Avdiivka on 2 November, achieving no confirmed results.

Ukraine's General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces had been holding back the Russian offensive near Avdiivka and repelled Russian advances near the settlements of Sieverne (6 kilometres west of Avdiivka), Tonenke (8 kilometres west of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (11 kilometres southwest of Avdiivka).

Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for the Tavriia Grouping of Ukrainian Forces, said the Russian army was mostly using small infantry groups for their attacks.

Shtupun noted that the pace of Russian military operations near Avdiivka is diminishing as Russian forces are regrouping and need reinforcements.

Vitalii Barabash, Head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, said the Russians were concentrating their efforts on Avdiivka's northern flank and conducting consistent assault operations despite heavy rains in the area.

A Ukrainian military observer also said Russian forces were expanding their control over positions near the settlement of Opytne (4 kilometres south of Avdiivka). A prominent Russian military blogger claimed that Russian troops had moved closer to the southwestern outskirts of Avdiivka and around a kilometre from Sieverne. However, the ISW has found no visual evidence of these claims.

Ukrainian forces launched no claimed or confirmed counterattacks near Avdiivka on 2 November.

Ukrainian troops pursued their counteroffensive near Bakhmut on 2 November and confirmed their advance. Geolocation footage released on 1 November indicated that Ukrainian forces had advanced further northeast of the railway line in the vicinity of the settlement of Klishchiivka (7 kilometres southwest of Bakhmut).

Russian troops continued their offensive on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on 2 November and made minor advances on the Kupiansk front.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched localised attacks on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on 2 November but made no advance.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 2 November:

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike on the Russian "Dnepr" Grouping of Forces headquarters in Kherson Oblast on 1 November.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Bakhmut and continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 2 November.
• The Russian information space’s reaction to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s 1 November interview and essay about the current operational environment in Ukraine was relatively muted.
• South Korean officials reported that North Korea is reportedly increasing its weapons and ammunition transfers to Russia and has reportedly delivered more than one million artillery rounds to date.
• The Wagner Group is reportedly planning to provide Hezbollah with Pantsir-S1 air defence systems.
• A Russian State Duma official attempted to deny ongoing claims that Rosgvardia will structurally absorb the Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC), rather than individually recruit former Wagner personnel.
• Select Russian milbloggers accused Chechen officials and Akhmat Spetsnaz of attempting to defame and censor milbloggers who criticised Wagner’s integration into Rosgvardia.
• Russian officials appear to be pursuing limited punishments for the 29 October antisemitic riots in the Republic of Dagestan, which several Russian officials and Russian state media have called "pogroms."
• Russian authorities elsewhere in the North Caucasus have indicated concerns about the potential for similar riots.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• Russian irregular forces are continuing to form new assault detachments and are incentivising recruitment by offering recruits semi-independence from the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD).
• Recent Russian border restrictions are reportedly complicating the return of Ukrainian children forcibly deported to Russia.

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