Russians advance on six areas near Avdiivka – ISW

Russian troops are advancing on six areas near Avdiivka, and heavy fighting continues near the Avdiivka Coke Plant.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian troops continued offensive operations near Avdiivka on 27 November but achieved no confirmed success.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled more than 30 Russian attacks east of Novobakhmutivka (13 km northwest of Avdiivka); northeast of Berdychiv (7 km northwest of Avdiivka); south of Novokalynove (12 km north of Avdiivka) and Tonenke (7 km west of Avdiivka); and near Stepove (3 km north of Avdiivka), Avdiivka, Pivnichne (6 km west of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (11 km southwest of Avdiivka).

Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for the Tavriia Operational Strategic Group, said that Russian troops continue ground attacks in groups of 10-20 people.

He added that Russian troops are advancing on six areas near Avdiivka, and heavy fighting continues near the Avdiivka Coke Plant in the northeast of Avdiivka and in the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka.

Russian sources repeated claims that Russian troops captured the entire industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka and reached the southeastern outskirts of Avdiivka.

A Russian news aggregator claimed that elements of the Veteran Assault Brigade (the Redut Private Military Company (PMC) affiliated with the Ministry of Defence) were primarily responsible for the capture of the industrial zone claimed by Russian troops.

In addition, Russian military bloggers claimed that the invaders made an indefinite advance near Kruta Balka (5 km east of Avdiivka) and the Avdiivka Coke Plant. However, ISW has no visual confirmation of these statements.

Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked near Avdiivka on 27 November.

A Russian military blogger noted that Ukrainian forces counterattacked Russian positions near Stepove and partially succeeded.

In addition, Russian military bloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked near an industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka.

Despite difficult weather conditions, both Russian and Ukrainian troops continue ground attacks throughout Ukraine, albeit at a somewhat slower pace due to snow and poor visibility.

Russian military bloggers note that heavy snow and wind reduced visibility and complicated aerial reconnaissance and artillery correction on the Kherson front, but indicate that Ukrainian troops took advantage of poor visibility conditions to consolidate positions on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River.

Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun said that Russian troops on the Tavriia front (from Avdiivka to the western part of Zaporizhia Oblast) due to weather conditions reduced the use of artillery by one and a half times and drones by six times, but stressed that Russian troops continue to use aviation on the Avdiivka front intensively.

Experts note that difficult winter conditions will force both sides to rely more on ground infantry attacks without aerial reconnaissance and artillery correction capabilities.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 26 November:

• A cyclone in the Black Sea and southern Ukraine caused infrastructure damage in many areas of coastal southern Russia and occupied Ukraine and is impacting the tempo of military operations along the frontline in Ukraine, but has notably not stopped military activity entirely.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and several Russian military bloggers (milbloggers) stated that Russia must maintain active operations in Ukraine and expressed worry over the prospect of further Western military support to Ukraine.
• Some milbloggers additionally expressed increased discontent with the perceived lack of articulated Russian war aims and stated Russia must clarify its war aims before discussing any pause or end to the war.
• Oleksii Danilov, Ukrainian National Defence and Security Council Secretary, stated that the Kremlin has activated a network of sleeper agents in Ukraine in the past few months to destabilise Ukrainian society.
• Russia’s attempt to artificially create a migrant crisis at the Finnish border appears to be failing due to Finnish authorities’ swift response.
• The Kremlin appears to be shifting responsibility for potential future austerity measures onto Russian occupation heads and the heads of four select Russian republics.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and did not make confirmed advances.
• General Viktor Astapov, Deputy Commander of the Russian Navy Lieutenant, confirmed on 27 November that the Russian Navy is reorganising naval infantry brigades into divisions in order to increase their combat capabilities.
• Likely Ukrainian partisans continue to target Russian occupation elements throughout occupied Ukraine.

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