Russian forces keep advancing near Avdiivka – ISW

Russian occupying forces have pursued their offensive near the town of Avdiivka and made a confirmed advance on 25 November.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Geolocation footage released on 24 November indicates that Russian troops have advanced north of the settlement of Krasnohorivka (7 km northwest of Avdiivka).

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces had pushed forward in the industrial zone and near the Yasynuvata-2 railway station (both southeast of Avdiivka), near the settlement of Kamianka (5 km northeast of Avdiivka) and the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks east and south of the village of Novokalynove and near the settlements of Novobakhmutivka (13 km northeast of Avdiivka), Stepove, Avdiivka, Sieverne (6 km west of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (11 km southwest of Avdiivka).

Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesperson for the Tavriia Operational Strategic Group of Ukrainian Forces, stated that the Russian army had reduced the intensity of airstrikes and the number of armoured vehicles operating in the area of Avdiivka while still conducting infantry attacks.

The Russian troops made an unconfirmed advance on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on 25 November.

Russian sources said Ukrainian forces had advanced southeast of the town of Kupiansk and launched attacks along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Russian military bloggers (milbloggers) suggested that the Ukrainian army had regained previously lost positions near the settlement of Yahidne (22 km southeast of Kupiansk).

The Ukrainian offensive near the war-torn town of Bakhmut persisted on 25 November but made no headway. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces had pursued assault operations south of Bakhmut. Vadim Astafyev, spokesman for Russia's Southern Military Group, claimed that Russian troops had repelled 10 Ukrainian attacks near the village of Klishchiivka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut).

Russian forces pursued offensive operations west and southwest of the city of Donetsk and reportedly made minor advances on 25 November.

Ukrainian troops pursued their offensive in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, making no claimed or confirmed advances.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 25 November that Ukrainian troops were holding their ground on the left (eastern) bank of Kherson Oblast. Russian milbloggers acknowledged that Ukrainian forces were hanging on to positions in the village of Krynky (30 km northeast of Kherson and 3 km from the Dnipro River). Still, they claimed that the Russian army had targeted and launched attacks on Ukrainian positions near and in a populated area.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 25 November:

• Russian forces launched the largest drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion overnight on 24 to 25 November using a new modification of the Iranian Shahed 131/136 drones.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to grapple with the challenges electronic warfare (EW) systems pose on the front.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on 25 November that Ukraine’s Western partners agreed to transfer warships to Ukraine to protect Ukraine’s grain corridor in the Black Sea.
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Russia has not fulfilled arms export deals to Armenia and offered an alternative arrangement that would allow Russia to keep the weapons against the backdrop of recent deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.
• Infighting among Russian ultranationalist milbloggers, likely exacerbated by ethnic tensions, has compelled a prominent milblogger to close his Telegram channel.
• Other milbloggers attributed increased infighting among ultranationalist voices about the war in Ukraine to Russian politics and the coming 2024 Russian presidential elections.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 25 November and advanced in some areas.
• Russian military commanders are reportedly ignoring frontline units’ requests for drones.
• Ukraine’s Ministry of Reintegration reported on 24 November that over 13,500 Ukrainians returned to Ukraine from Russia via a humanitarian corridor in Sumy Oblast since its establishment in July 2023.

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