Ukrainian defenders have confirmed gains near Robotyne – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), having analysed the data collected, report that Ukraine's Defence Forces confirmed territorial gains near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Source: ISW

Details: The analytical report states that Ukrainian troops continued offensive operations in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 16 November and confirmed territorial gains near Robotyne on 15 November.

A Russian military blogger posted a video on 15 November with geolocation, which shows Russian troops striking Ukrainian positions west of Robotyne, indicating that Ukrainian troops have made little progress.

In addition, Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops unsuccessfully attempted to advance in the areas of Kopani (5 kilometres northwest of Robotyne), Rivne (9 kilometres west), Novoprokopivka (south of Robotyne), Verbove (8 kilometres east), and in the direction of Novofedorivka (14 kilometres northeast of Robotyne).

At the same time, Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets assessed that Ukrainian forces have probably made some progress near Novopokrovka (12 kilometres northeast of Robotyne), with only a single forest belt separating them from the settlement, which is defended by the Russian 108th Guards Kuban Cossack Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Guards Airborne Division of the Airborne Forces.

Mashovets added that a few days ago, Ukrainian troops appeared to have pushed back units of Russia's 136th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) on the Kopani front and moved closer to Nesterianka (10 kilometres northwest of Robotyne).

Russian troops launched an assault on Ukrainian positions near Robotyne on 16 November, but made no confirmed territorial gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Robotyne and west of Verbove (8 kilometres east of Robotyne).

At the same time, Mashovets said that units of the Russian 247th Guards Regiment (7th Guards Division of the Airborne Forces) had apparently lost control of the heights northwest of Verbove, which complicates the Russian defence of the northwestern outskirts of the settlement.

Mashovets also noted that units of Russia's 503rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (19th Motor Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army), 104th Regiment and 234th Airborne Regiment (both belonging to the 76th Guards Airborne Division) are engaged in intense fighting on the Nesterianka-Kopani line.

Mashovets also claimed that the command of Russia's 19th Motor Rifle Division and the 76th Guards Air Assault Division have strict orders to hold the Nesterianka-Kopani line "under any circumstances". However, the ISW is unable to verify this statement.

The review also notes that Russian troops continued offensive operations near Bakhmut on 16 November, but did not achieve any confirmed success.

Additionally, the experts said that the offensive operations of the Defence Forces south of Bakhmut have not been confirmed as successful.

It is stated that Russian troops have made minor advances north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant, northwest of Avdiivka.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 16 November:

• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of 15-16 November.
• Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev announced on 16 November that Russian authorities are strengthening Russian air defense over Russia’s Central Federal Okrug, likely in response to Ukraine’s recently implied intent to conduct an interdiction campaign against Russian supply routes in rear areas during the winter.
• Ukraine stated that the continued Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has resulted in equipment and maintenance failures that threaten the plant’s security.
• The Ukrainian and IAEA reports indicate that Russia’s presence and exclusive control over the ZNPP is increasing, suggesting that similar failures may escalate under continued Russian occupation.
• Cyprus has reportedly been complicit in helping Russian elites, sanctioned for supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, launder money.
• Gazprom Media Holdings, a subsidiary of Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom, announced on 16 November that it acquired the majority share of a large Russian blogger agency, likely in an effort to expand its already extensive control over the Russian media space.
• Russian authorities discovered former Russian 6th Air Force and Air Defense Army Commander Lieutenant General Vladimir Sviridov dead in his home in Stavropol Krai on 15 November.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, near Robotyne, and northeast of Vasylivka and advanced near Avdiivka.
• The Russian Ministry of Education issued a draft order establishing a course called "Fundamentals of Security and Defense of the Motherland" for Russian middle and high school students starting in September 2024.
• The Russian government and Russian occupation authorities continue to forcibly deport children in occupied Ukraine to Russia under the rubric of educational programs.

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