Russia attempts to seize initiative on battlefield – ISW

Ivashkiv Olena — Wednesday, 15 November 2023, 03:55

MILITARY MACHINERY ON THE BATTLEFIELD. PHOTO: UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF

Russian forces have likely been trying to regain the initiative on the battlefield in Ukraine by launching several simultaneous offensives in the east.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts believe it remains unclear whether Russian troops will manage to fully regain the initiative, considering that Ukrainian forces persist in pressing on critical frontline areas.

Several Ukrainian officials noted that the situation along the contact line is challenging, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control of the battlefield.

Ukrainian officials' remarks on the current pace of Russian operations on the contact line are consistent with ISW's assessment of Russian offensives, particularly on the Kupiansk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka fronts.

However, ISW analysts believe that Russian troops will likely find it tough to fully regain the initiative on the battlefield as Ukrainian forces continue their own offensive operations and make tactical gains along the contact line. This is particularly true in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the left bank part of Kherson Oblast.

ISW suggests that Russian military leadership will likely have to decide whether to retain certain Russian formations in some areas of the war zone to counter the Ukrainian offensive or to redeploy them to support the offensive elsewhere.

This is likely to hamper Russia's ability to fully regain the initiative in the coming weeks.

To quote the ISW’s key takeaways on 13 November:

Russian forces are likely trying to regain the theatre-level initiative in Ukraine by conducting several simultaneous offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, although it remains unclear if Russian forces will be able to fully regain the initiative as Ukrainian forces maintain pressure on critical areas of the front.
Ukrainian President's Office Head Andrii Yermak stated on 13 November that Ukrainian forces have established a "foothold" on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.
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