Russian production chains not destroyed yet but crisis deepens – Ukraine's Defence Intelligence Chief

Internal systematic economic destruction in Russia is intensifying, but Russians will not start facing real problems until 2025.

Source: Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, in a commentary for NV media outlet

Details: Budanov stated that economic stability is so far being preserved in Russia. Production chains have not yet been destroyed and are able to function for more than one year.

"We are observing a massive fuel crisis, a sharp rise in food prices (the prices increased two times by 15-20% within the last two months) and the prices of other goods and services. All of this is loosening their economy and social sector. They will face real problems in 2025," Budanov forecasts.

He states it is important to listen to the analysts who are modelling different situations taking into account a lot of information.

"There is hope that 2025 will become a turning point concerning internal systematic disastrous changes in the Russian state, society and economy. But this is not a forecast, merely an expectation," Budanov stated.

"As of now, taking into account existing factors, there is a chance of this happening. But we should not forget that this war is globalising each month, and it initiates new processes. They will also affect the situation and significantly alter any previous calculations. This is a challenge leading analysts worldwide have faced," he added.

Budanov also noted exhaustion from the war among Russians, which is rapidly growing. This is happening amid drastic population decline, specifically male population.

However, the Defence Intelligence Chief thinks that this factor in particular will not be a problem for Russian President Vladimir Putin as he will manage to find "cannon fodder" for the war.

Background:

The Federal Statistics Service of Russia forecasted annual population extinction in Russia with the speed of up to 700,000 people a year.

In 2023, as a result of natural decline alone, Russia is to lose more than 600,000 people, in 2024 – about 675,000, in 2025 – 693,000, in 2026-2027 – over 700,000. Then natural decline will seemingly start to slow down gradually – to 652,000 people by 2030 and 532,000 by 2035, but will still remain higher than 400,000 people a year even until the mid-2040s.

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