Russian troops mine previously cleared frontline areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast – ISW

Russian forces have intensified the laying of mines in the area of the settlements of Robotyne-Verbove and are trying to hold Ukrainian forces back in areas of the frontline away from the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian troops have begun to lay mines in previously cleared areas on the Robotyne-Verbove line (10 kilometres south to 18 kilometres southeast of the town of Orikhiv) to achieve tactical surprise.

A well-known Kremlin-aligned blogger claimed that Russian forces had intensified tactical offensives in several frontline areas outside Zaporizhzhia Oblast to stretch Ukrainian defences and distract the Ukrainians.

Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, Spokesman for the Tavriia Group of Ukrainian Forces, said the Russians were trying to freeze the Ukrainian army in the areas of the settlements of Avdiivka and Marinka and prevent them from moving their reserves to the Zaporizhzhia front.

In addition, Ukrainian forces pursued counteroffensive operations near the city of Bakhmut and made minor advances in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 8 October. Geolocation footage posted on 8 October indicated that Ukrainian troops had made limited gains north of the settlement of Novoprokopivka (14 kilometres south of Orikhiv), while a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces had also advanced near the village of Kopani (10 kilometres southwest of Orikhiv).

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces had achieved partial success northeast of the settlement of Andriivka (7 kilometres southwest of Bakhmut). In contrast, Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops further pursued their attacks near the settlements of Andriivka and Kurdiumivka (11 kilometres southwest of Bakhmut).

Russian and Ukrainian sources also reported that the deteriorating weather conditions were affecting both Russian and Ukrainian operations. Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, Spokesman for the Tavriia Group of Ukrainian Forces, said the activity of Russian drones and aircraft has decreased in recent days due to the bad weather.

Russian milbloggers have claimed that the deteriorating weather conditions on the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia fronts were affecting Ukraine's offensive operations, as well as Russian aerial reconnaissance efforts. Captain Illia Yevlash, spokesman for the Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, echoed the view that bad weather might affect the activities of drones and aircraft but would not stop Ukraine's counteroffensive.

To quote ISW’s Takeaways for 8 October:

• Russia advanced legal mechanisms to form the Leningrad Military District as part of ongoing large-scale military reforms.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 8 October.
• Russian forces are intensifying mining efforts in the Robotyne-Verbove area and seek to fix Ukrainian forces on areas of the front away from western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian sources are highlighting apparent fault lines between regular Russian forces and irregular formations of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR).
• Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat expressed concern over an anticipated Russian Shahed 131/136 drone strike campaign against Ukraine this winter.
• The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) observed satellite imagery showing that rail traffic between North Korea and Russia "dramatically" increased since Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un on 12-17 September.
• The Russian federal government continues to disenfranchise certain ethnic minority federal subjects (regions) while selectively empowering others.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, western Donetsk Oblast, and on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border on 8 October and reportedly advanced in some areas.
• Prague-based Russian-language outlet Current Time reported on 8 October that the number of desertion cases within the Russian military has increased.

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