Degraded Russian troops are not able to conduct full-fledged offensive on Kupiansk front – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point to the resumption of offensive operations by Russian invaders on the Kupiansk front but deny the possibility of success for "degraded elements" of Russian forces operating in this area.

Source: ISW

Details: Ukrainian troops continued their counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and advanced in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 6 October.

Experts note that Russian troops seem to have recently rotated on the Orikhiv front, demonstrating the ability to hold defences in this critical sector of the front.

In addition, the report says that Russian invaders continued offensive operations near Kupiansk on 6 October, and most of the Russian forces deployed in this sector of the front probably remain combat-ready.

The Ukrainian military reported a decrease in the activity of Russian troops near Kupiansk in recent weeks, but on 6 October, Ilya Yevlash, Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson, said that Russian troops had resumed fighting on the Kupiansk-Lyman front.

Russian "military commanders" claim that Russian troops have launched an offensive near Synkivka (8 km north-east of Kupiansk) and that they are intensively shelling the N26 (Shevchenkove-Kupiansk) highway.

One of the "military commanders" described the renewed offensive of Russian troops on Kupiansk as "large-scale", and later deleted the post.

The review recalls that Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence, had previously reported that the Russian military had deployed elements of the newly created 25th Combined Arms Army on the Kupiansk front to replace the 41st Combined Arms Army.

Analysts suggest that the resumption of Russian offensive operations near Kupiansk with the participation of elements of the 25th Combined Arms Army is likely intended to divert the Ukrainian side's attention from other parts of the frontline in the south of Ukraine.

However, ISW's preliminary assessment is that the 25th Combined Arms Army was hastily deployed ahead of its December 2023 target date and is likely to be severely understaffed, poorly trained, or both.

The ISW has also previously observed the presence of severely degraded elements of the Western Military District, including the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Combined Arms Army, on the Kupiansk front. The ISW does not currently believe that a grouping consisting of the newly formed 25th Combined Arms Army with degraded elements of the Western Military District (WMD) would be capable of conducting a full-scale offensive in the area.

To quote ISW’s Takeaways for 6 October:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and advanced in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 6 October.
• Russian forces appear to have recently conducted a regimental rotation on the Orikhiv front, demonstrating an ability to sustain their defences in this critical sector of the frontline.
• Russian forces reportedly resumed an offensive effort near Kupiansk on 6 October, but the majority of the Russian forces reportedly deployed to this sector of the front likely remain combat ineffective.
• Russian forces may be expanding military training infrastructure in occupied eastern Ukraine as part of ongoing efforts to increase the training and mobilization capacity of the Russian military.
• The Kremlin’s continued attempts to deflect blame for the crash of Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane and disgrace Prigozhin are generating continued praise for Prigozhin and efforts to defend his legacy among select information space communities.
• Former Russian military commanders who participated in the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reportedly remain in peripheral positions of some influence within the Russian military or defense-industrial base.
• Russian forces conducted a Shahed-131/136 drone strike targeting port, grain, and border infrastructure in southern Ukraine on the night of 5-6 October.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Lyman line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut and advanced in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russia has reportedly recruited up to several hundred Serbian nationals to fight in Ukraine.

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