Ukrainian Armed Forces advance near Andriivka, Robotyne and Verbove – ISW

The Ukrainian Defence Forces advanced near Andriivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Robotyne and Verbove, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Source: the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The analysts say Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut and advanced on 5 October. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that the Ukrainian troops made certain gains east of Andriivka.

The Russian military said that Ukrainian troops are moving towards the railway track in the area of Klishchiivka (seven km southwest of Bakhmut).

On 5 October, Ukrainian troops conducted offensive operations in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advanced. Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson, said that the Ukrainian forces achieved partial success west of Robotyne (10 km south of Orikhiv). The General Staff of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian troops continue to conduct offensive operations on the Melitopol front (western part of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast).

The Russian military claimed that Ukrainian forces were trying to advance along the Robotyne-Verbove line (10 km south to 18 km southeast of Orikhiv), on the Kopani front (11 km southwest of Orikhiv) and near Novoprokopivka (16 km south of Orikhiv). On 4 October, a Russian milblogger said that Ukrainian troops had made a limited advance along the Kopani-Robotyne-Verbove line.

Russian sources also claimed that on 5 October, Ukrainian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The Russian Defence Ministry and other Russian sources claimed that Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attacks near Staromayorske (nine kilometres south of Velyka Novosilka), Novodarivka (15 km southwest of Velyka Novosilka), and Pryyutne (16 km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).

ISW Key Takeaways for 3 October:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the 20th Valdai Discussion Club on 5 October and promoted multiple long-standing Russian information operations.
• Putin offered a bizarre explanation for Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death during a press conference at the Valdai Discussion Club on 5 October to deflect blame from the Kremlin.
• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on 5 October.
• The Russian military may have redeployed elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA) and elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade to the Kherson front.
• Russian forces conducted a missile strike on Hroza, Kharkiv Oblast that killed 51 people on 5 October, following another series of drone strikes across Ukraine overnight.
• Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu indicated that the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) may be establishing training regiments that can also serve as in extremis operational or strategic reserves, although this is a low confidence assessment.
• Russia will reportedly build a permanent naval base in Abkhazia, but it will likely remain small.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast but did not advance on 5 October.
• Russia continues to use the personal data of Russian citizens for crypto-mobilization efforts [this is a mobilisation that is not openly recognised or declared – Ukrainska Pravda].
• Russian occupation officials continue to advertise programs for the forcible removal and deportation of Ukrainian children.

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