Ukrainian military advances along Novoprokopivka and Bakhmut – ISW

Ukrainian troops continued their offensive operations and advanced in the area of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front and near Novoprokopivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Source: the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Analysts of the Institute report that the correspondent of the Kremlin outlet Novye Izvestia claimed that Ukrainian forces are holding positions within a radius of 40 meters from the railway track near Klishchiivka in Donetsk Oblast. 

The Russian military also claimed that Ukrainian troops had resumed attacks that involved the use of armoured vehicles near Klishchiivka and Andriivka towards the railway track and that fighting was underway in the contested "gray zones" northeast and southwest of Andriivka.

In addition, according to information from Russian sources, it is known that Ukrainian forces continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk front and made certain gains.

In the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukrainian troops have achieved confirmed success. Geolocation footage released on 4 October indicates that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced east of Novoprokopivka (approximately five km southeast of Robotyne). Ukrainian forces hold positions near a trench system that lies along the Orikhiv-Tokmak route between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka.

The Russian military notes that Ukrainian forces have intensified shelling along the Robotyne-Kopani line (about five km northwest of Robotyne), and some Russian sources have claimed that Ukrainian forces have advanced into some Russian defensive trenches on the line over the past day.

On 4 October, Russian troops continued their counterattack in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and regained some positions. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attacked near Robotyne and Verbove. Several Russian sources claimed that Russian paratroopers managed to push Ukrainian forces back about two kilometres near Verbove on 4 October. A Russian military blogger published vivid footage of a detachment of paratroopers from the 7th Division supposedly clearing the captured Ukrainian stronghold somewhere between Robotyne and Verbove.

Key ISW takeaways for 4 September:

• The Russian military recently transferred several Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessels from the port in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea to the port in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, likely in an effort to protect them from continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets in occupied Crimea.
• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and marginally advanced on October 4.
• Autumn and winter weather conditions will slow but not stop Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
• The Kremlin is likely intensifying its use of tools of digital authoritarianism to increase domestic repression and tighten control of the information space. 
• CNN reported on 4 October that the US will transfer seized Iranian weapons and ammunition rounds to Ukraine.
• Russian sources continue to speculate about the current role of former Aerospace Forces (VKS) Commander and Wagner Group–affiliate Army General Sergei Surovikin after the Wagner rebellion, further highlighting his continued relevance in the Russian information space. 
• The European Union (EU) is reportedly preparing for negotiations on Ukraine’s EU accession that will take place in December.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made limited gains near Kreminna.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to collect information about Russian citizens for future conscription and enlistment cycles.
• Marat Khusnullin, Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Construction and Regional Development, is reportedly heavily involved in Russian infrastructure projects in occupied Ukraine.

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