Ukrainian military regains positions near Robotyne – ISW

Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has updated its 1 October assessment that Ukrainian forces lost positions in the trench system southwest of Robotyne: geographic footage released on 2 October and satellite imagery indicate that Ukrainian forces regained these positions sometime between 12 and 17 September and are currently holding them.

Source: ISW

Details: In addition, according to military analysts, Ukrainian troops have advanced slightly in the area of the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and near Bakhmut.

On 2 October, Russian troops continued their offensive on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line and advanced. The Russian military claimed the capture of several Ukrainian positions near Sieverne (6 km west of Avdiivka), Keramik (14 km northwest of Avdiivka) and Stepove (8 km northwest of Avdiivka), on 1 and 2 October.

Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks east of Stepove and near Avdiivka, Keramik, Pervomaiske (11 km southwest of Avdiivka), Marinka (on the western line of the city of Donetsk) and Novomykhailivka (36 km southwest of Avdiivka).

Previously: On 1 October, experts from the ISW called the situation south of Robotyne unstable, tactically complicated and dynamic, as important field fortifications had changed hands several times.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 2 October:

• A prominent Russian milblogger and front-line unit commander claimed that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky "saved" the Russian 31st Guards VDV Brigade, which was fighting south of Bakhmut.
• A Russian "Storm Z" assault unit instructor speculated that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) removed Lieutenant General Andrey Sychevoy from commanding the Bakhmut direction due to his poor performance.
• Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area and near Bakhmut on 2 October.
• Prominent actors in the Russian information space continue to speculate about the possible future of the Wagner Group under Rosgvardia.
• Interethnic tensions and claims about the superiority of Chechen "Akhmat" forces over regular Russian forces continue to generate controversy in the Russian information space.
• Russian forces conducted a small-scale Shahed-131/136 drone strike on Ukraine on the night of 1-2 October after Russian forces conducted a record number of drone strikes targeting Ukrainian grain and port infrastructure in September 2023.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kreminna, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas on 2 October.
• The Russian "Vostok" Battalion continued to complain on 1 October that the Russian military command is not fulfilling its promises of having the unit fight as a second-echelon force and is not providing state awards.
• Russian occupation officials continued to transport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of educational trips.

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