Russian forces lose over 100 equipment pieces near Avdiivka – ISW

A Ukrainian reserve officer has released satellite images and confirmed that the Russian forces lost more than 109 vehicles near Avdiivka between 10 and 20 October.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The reserve officer noted that the majority of Russian losses were primarily armoured combat vehicles, such as BMP-1, BMP-2 and MT-LB, T-72, T-64, T-80 tanks, armoured personnel carriers and other vehicles.

He also stated that the losses of Russian equipment on the Avdiivka front had exceeded their losses during the failed crossing of the Siverskyi Donets River in May 2022 and are likely to exceed those on the Vuhledar front between November 2022 and April 2023.

The figures may increase – about a dozen vehicles are not included in the list of losses due to inconsistent images.

Two other independent sources estimated that the Russian forces had lost around 200 military vehicles near Avdiivka.

A Russian military blogger stated on 24 October that Ukrainian forces had counterattacked and pushed Russian forces back from Berdychi (10 kilometres northwest of Avdiivka).

Russian troops conducted offensive operations in the area of Avdiivka on 25 October. Geolocation footage released on 24 October showed that they had advanced northwest of Krasnohorivka (5 kilometres northwest of Avdiivka).

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces carried out unsuccessful attacks near Stepove (3 kilometres northwest of Avdiivka), Avdiivka, Tonenke (5 kilometres west of Avdiivka), Pivnichne (6 kilometres west of Avdiivka) and Nevelske (13 kilometres southwest of Avdiivka).

A popular Russian military blogger claimed on 25 October that Russian forces had achieved "serious tactical success" on the outskirts of Avdiivka and near Stepove and had advanced to the railway line north of Avdiivka.

Another Russian blogger claimed that Russian troops were advancing from Krasnohorivka to Novokalynove (7 kilometres north of Avdiivka).

Russian forces claimed to be in control of the Avdiivka terrain, as did the Ukrainian military observer. Vitalii Barabash, Head of Avdiivka City Military Administration, denied these claims and said it was a disputed "grey zone".

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 25 October:

• Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and continued offensive operations near Bakhmut on 25 October.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka on 25 October and made a confirmed advance.
• Russian sources claimed on 25 October that Ukrainian forces resumed larger-than-usual ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and maintain positions in several areas on the east bank.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a fall-winter Russian strike campaign against Ukraine after another series of Russian drone strikes on the night of 24-25 October.
• Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited an Eastern Grouping of Forces command post on the south Donetsk front (Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblasts border area) on 25 October.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence confirmed that Lieutenant General Andrei Kuzmenko is the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander on 25 October.  
• The Kremlin’s support for ultranationalist Russian Orthodox religion and ideology appears to be complicating Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s ability to balance appealing to his Chechen Muslim constituencies with keeping the Kremlin’s favour.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove line, near Bakhmut, southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia but did not make confirmed advances.
• Russian National Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed that nearly 385,000 people have entered service with the Russian armed forces between 1 January and 25 October, 2023.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to use medical infrastructure to justify the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia and to further consolidate control of occupied areas of Ukraine.

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