Almost 50% of Ukrainian think Russia has enough resources for long war

Almost 50% of Ukrainians believe that despite its losses, Russia still has enough resources and can wage war against Ukraine for many years to come. In six months, the percentage of Ukrainians who think so has doubled. 

Source: the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) survey conducted on 29 September-9 October

Quote: "Compared to February 2023, now from 22% to 49% there are more people who believe that Russia still retains a significant reserve of resources and can wage war against Ukraine for many more years. 

On the other hand, from 67% to 43%, the share of those who, on the contrary, believe that Russia is exhausting its resources and that the war may end on terms acceptable to Ukraine in the foreseeable future has decreased."

Details: In February 2023, for the first time, sociologists asked respondents which point of view they agreed with to a greater extent – that Russia really has a significant supply of resources, can exhaust Ukraine for a long time, and as a result, Ukraine will not be able to end the war on acceptable terms? Or that Russia is actually exhausting its resources, and Ukraine, together with the support of the world, will be able to end the war on acceptable terms in the foreseeable future?

The same question was asked again in September-October 2023.

Over the past six months, the number of those who believe that Russia retains a significant amount of resources and can wage war against Ukraine for many more years has increased.

In addition, among those who believe in Russia's significant resources, there are more people who are ready for territorial concessions (21%), while it's only 7 percent among those who believe that Russia is exhausting its resources.

At the same time, even among those who believe that Russia has significant resources for a long war, the overwhelming majority (73%) oppose any territorial compromises.

Reference: The survey was conducted from 29 September to 9 October. 

A total of 1,010 respondents (aged 18 and older) were interviewed by phone, with the method based on a random sample of telephone numbers.

The sample did not include residents of the territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian government until 24 February 2022 (the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol, separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), and the survey was not conducted with citizens abroad.

Formally, the statistical sampling error under normal circumstances did not exceed 3.4% for indicators close to 50%, 3% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% for indicators close to 10%, and 1.5% for indicators close to 5%.

It is noted that in times of war, in addition to this formal margin of error, a certain systematic deviation is added.

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