Russians disregard heavy losses and keep sending more forces to Avdiivka – ISW

The Russians persist in moving their troops to the Avdiivka front despite massive losses in their ranks.

Source: the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Analysts indicate that Russia is deploying additional troops to the Avdiivka front, regardless of the ongoing problems with frontal attacks of motorised units and the failure of a new offensive attempt on 19-20 October.

Several Russian military bloggers (milbloggers) claimed that there were no significant changes on the Avdiivka front on 22 October.

The Russian troops likely took another break following a failed major offensive that had resulted in severe losses.

A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces "unexpectedly" launched a counterattack towards the settlement of Pisky (8 km southwest of the city of Donetsk), driving Russian troops out of their positions in the area.

Another milblogger claimed that reports of Ukrainian troops advancing in the area of the settlements of Pisky and Opytne (4 km south of the city of Avdiivka) were groundless.

The geolocation footage posted on 21 October indicated that Russian forces had recently made a slight advance southeast of the settlement of Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).

A Russian military blogger claimed that the Russians have not fully seized the territory of the Avdiivka waste heap and that this area is currently a "grey zone".

A Kremlin-aligned milblogger commented on the challenges that might lead to a "positional deadlock" for Russian offensive operations on the Avdiivka front.

He claimed it was tough to wage manoeuvrable warfare on a static front line with many military personnel and fortified areas on both sides.

The Russian noted that Ukrainian drones and other precision weapons leave Russian armoured vehicles increasingly vulnerable and make ground attacks more challenging.

The milblogger claimed that Russian troops are facing trouble overcoming Ukrainian minefields near Avdiivka and are unable to completely destroy Ukrainian logistics, thus allowing the Ukrainian command to promptly redeploy personnel to critical areas.

Furthermore, Russian sources had previously claimed that Ukrainian defensive fortifications greatly challenged the Russian advance around Avdiivka.

Experts observe that these challenges are quite similar to those faced by Ukrainian forces in Ukraine's south in the first weeks of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in June 2023. However, it remains to be seen whether Russian troops have the capabilities and flexibility to adapt in the same way as Ukrainian forces did after their initial setbacks in June 2023.

Ukrainian sources also indicate that Russia continues to deploy military personnel to the Avdiivka front to support the offensive, regardless of heavy casualties.

To quote ISW’s Takeaways for 22 October:

• Russian forces are funnelling additional forces to the Avdiivka front despite ongoing challenges with frontal mechanised assaults and the failure of a renewed push on 19-20 October.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 22 October.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on 22 October.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on 22 October.
• Russian authorities are intensifying mobilisation efforts targeting Central Asian migrant communities.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to use cultural and education programmes to forcibly Russify Ukrainian children.

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