Situation south of Robotyne is unstable, complicated and dynamic – ISW report

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have called the situation south of Robotyne unstable, tactically complicated and dynamic, as important field fortifications have changed hands several times.

Source: ISW

Details: The ISW noted that Russian troops were conducting tactical counterattacks near Robotyne as part of their "deep defence" [the Russian army has made deep trenches in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine – ed.] against Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

As experts said, the situation south of Robotyne is unstable, as some tactically important field fortifications have changed hands several times, and the tactical situation in the area is complicated and dynamic.

As for the status of the Wagner Group, the ISW said that it remained unclear amid reports of negotiations on the future cooperation of the Wagner Group with the Russian government.

The main combat elements of the Wagner Group are scattered across several countries, including Belarus, the Central African Republic, Libya and Mali, and there is no clearly identified single leader of the group.

The ISW will reconsider its assessment of the prospects for the Wagner Group's revival as an effective military organisation if it is successfully re-established as a large unitary organisation under the leadership of the Russian National Guard, the Russian Ministry of Defence or similar agencies.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 1 October:

• Russian forces are conducting tactical counterattacks in the Robotyne area as part of their elastic defence against ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The situation south of Robotyne is fluid as some tactically significant field fortifications have changed hands several times.
• The Russian information space continues to falsely portray Western aid to Ukraine as escalatory in order to discourage continued Western support for Ukraine.
• The status of the Wagner Group remains unclear amid reported negotiations about the Wagner Group’s future cooperation with the Russian government.
• ISW will revise its assessment about the prospects for the Wagner Group to reemerge as an effective military organisation if the Wagner Group successfully reconstitutes as a large, unitary organisation under Rosgvardia, the Russian Ministry of Defence, or a similar organisation.
• Russian forces conducted another series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of 30 September-1 October.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Lyman line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and marginally advanced in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence officially announced the beginning of its regular fall 2023 conscription cycle on 1 October. 

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