Russians concerned with Ukrainian activity on occupied bank of Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that Ukrainian marines have advanced on the occupied bank of the Dnipro River, and that Russians are concerned about the possibility of a "larger-scale Ukrainian operation" in occupied Kherson Oblast.

Source: the ISW

Details: Russian sources claimed that on 17-18 October, units of two Ukrainian marine brigades, possibly company-sized, crossed the Dnipro River and reached the eastern (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.

Geolocation footage released on 18 October indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced north of Pishchanivka (14 kilometres east of Kherson and 3 kilometres from the Dnipro River) and into Poima (11 kilometres east of Kherson and 4 kilometres from the Dnipro River).

The ISW pointed out that Russian sources had expressed concern about ongoing Ukrainian activity on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast and considered this activity part of a potential larger Ukrainian operation.

Experts said that Russia's concern about the ability of Russian troops to repel a potential Ukrainian offensive across the Dnipro River might be partially related to the state of the Russian grouping of troops on the left bank.

In recent months, Russian commanders have moved relatively more elite units from the Kherson front to support defensive operations in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as they likely view Kherson as a quiet sector and the current force composition in the area is likely relatively less efficient.

Quote from the ISW: "ISW will not speculate on the scope and prospects of ongoing Ukrainian activity on the east bank of Kherson Oblast but does not assess that Ukrainian forces have created a bridgehead on the east bank of Kherson Oblast suitable for the further maneuver of sizeable mechanised forces at this time. 

However, it is noteworthy that prominent and generally reliable Russian sources are discussing Ukrainian activities on the east bank as occurring at a larger scale than previously documented tactical cross-river raids by Ukrainian forces."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 18 October:

• Russian sources claimed that likely company-sized elements of two Ukrainian naval infantry brigades conducted an assault across the Dnipro River onto the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on 17-18 October.
• Russian sources expressed pronounced concern about ongoing Ukrainian activity on the east bank of Kherson Oblast and framed these activities as part of a potential larger Ukrainian operation.
• ISW will not speculate on the scope and prospects of ongoing Ukrainian activity on the east bank of Kherson Oblast but does not assess that Ukrainian forces have created a bridgehead on the east bank of Kherson Oblast suitable for the further maneuver of sizeable mechanised forces at this time.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Western media reported that the US has thus far provided Ukraine with a limited number of ATACMS missiles, and the Kremlin issued a muted response to the provision of these systems
• Satellite imagery from 17 October suggests that the Ukrainian ATACMS strike on the Berdiansk airfield likely substantially damaged Russian aircraft and airfield infrastructure, but ISW cannot yet confirm the extent of the damage.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated his desire to deepen Russian-Chinese economic and political ties but did not announce any practical changes at the One Belt One Road International Forum in Beijing, China on October 18.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka direction, southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advanced south of Avdiivka.

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