UK intelligence, like ISW, considers Russian breakthrough to Kupiansk and Lyman unlikely
UK Defence Intelligence has noted that the Russian occupying forces have stepped up their offensive activity in the Kupiansk-Lyman area over the past two weeks. However, a substantial operational breakthrough by the Russian army is unlikely.
Source: UK Defence Intelligence update dated 18 October on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda
Details: The UK MoD reports that the Russians have intensified bombardments in this area, and units of the 6th and 25th Combined Arms Armies and the 1st Guards Tank Army have launched attacks, achieving limited success.
UK Defence Intelligence suggests that this activity is part of an ongoing Russian offensive on several fronts in Ukraine's east.
The UK MoD stressed that the Russian goal in the Kupiansk-Lyman area is to move west to the Oskil River to create a buffer zone around Luhansk Oblast.
Quote from UK intelligence: "RGF [Russian Ground Forces – ed.] have built up combat capacity in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction in recent months. However, Ukrainian forces retain a significant defensive presence on this axis and it is highly unlikely RGF will achieve a major operational breakthrough."
Background:
- In its analysis dated 6 October, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pointed to the resumption of offensive operations by the Russians on the Kupiansk front but saw no possibility of success for the "degraded elements" of Russian forces operating in this area.
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