Russian forces step up efforts to encircle Avdiivka – ISW
Russian troops have continued with their offensive operations to encircle Avdiivka on 15 October but have failed to advance and slowed down the pace of operations in the area, although they may intensify their efforts to surround the city in the coming days.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: Military experts say Russian troops are likely to pursue their offensive at this reduced pace and remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the area, even though the Russians are unlikely to reach a decisive breakthrough or encircle Avdiivka at this time. Any slowdown in the Russian offensive may be the result of a tactical adjustment, and in the coming days the Russians may intensify their attempts to encircle Avdiivka.
A Ukrainian military observer noted that Russian troops have infiltrated the Ukrainian flanks around Avdiivka and pose a major threat to Ukrainian positions despite the fact that they are unlikely to be able to surround Avdiivka any time soon.
Ukrainian military observers noted that Russian forces had concentrated a significant grouping of forces comprising units from the 15th Motorised Rifle and 11th Rifle Regiments on the contact line between the cities of Avdiivka and Donetsk and have undertaken offensive actions in the area (three or more battalions conducting joint attacks on a scale larger than most Russian or Ukrainian assaults at this stage of the war).
This Russian group is reportedly likely to be able to conduct offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka should Russian commanders be willing to suffer relatively heavy casualties, although they still would not be sufficient to break through right away.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces had repelled over 15 Russian assaults near Avdiivka and northwest and southwest of the town.
ISW has not discovered visual evidence of previous claims of Russian advances in the area or geolocation video footage of any other Russian advances.
Russian sources claimed that the Russian advances in the area on 15 October had significantly diminished compared to previous days and described these new supposed advances as insignificant. A Russian military blogger acknowledged that Ukrainian troops were still present at the Avdiivka Coke Plant, following contradictory Russian claims of Russian control of the plant.
Both Ukrainian military observers and Russian sources stated that the Russian forces did not achieve the desired immediate breakthrough and that Russian troops faced heavy casualties and likely a slower-than-expected advance rate.
Vitalii Barabash, Head of Avdiivka City Military Administration, stated on 12 October that Russian troops conducted an assault supported by aircraft from 10-12 areas around the city, whereas the Ukrainian General Staff reported on 15 October that fighting had only been taking place near six settlements.
Colonel Oleksandr Stupun, spokesman for the Tavriia Grouping of the Ukrainian forces, said the pace of the Russian offensive near Avdiivka had slowed down, and Russian troops had lost over 300 pieces of military equipment and 3,000 military personnel since the offensive in the area intensified on 9 October.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 16 October:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
- The Russian information space writ large is also metering its initial optimism about the prospects of Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka on 15 October but have yet to make further gains amid a likely decreasing tempo of Russian operations in the area.
- Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations at this decreased tempo in the near term, however, and will remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the area despite being unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough or encircle Avdiivka at this time.
- A prominent Russian milblogger and frontline unit commander complained that Russian military leadership is uninterested in battalion level problems, supplementing other Russian milblogger complaints about general problems in the Russian military.
- Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 15 October and slightly advanced south of Bakhmut.
- Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 15 October and advanced in some areas.
- A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have "significant" reserves comprised of new divisions currently located in rear areas, though these formations are highly unlikely to be fully staffed at this time.
- The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) is sending a reportedly Kremlin-affiliated priest to Crimea, likely as part of continued Russian efforts to persecute religious communities in occupied Ukraine.
Background:
- Vitalii Barabash, Head of Avdiivka City Military Administration, said Russian troops had been launching massive strikes on Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast since 06:00 on 10 October.
- Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have analysed the Russian attacks around Avdiivka and concluded that these advances at a tactical level are unlikely to lead to broader operational and strategic victories.
- On 13 October, reports emerged that the situation in Avdiivka had been extremely dire for four days: the Russians had intensified their bombardments and were trying to advance with armoured vehicles, but Ukrainian soldiers were holding their ground.
- On 16 October, the General Staff reported that the Russians were conducting assault operations on the Avdiivka front with the support of aircraft.
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