Number of Ukrainians who believe in conflict within authorities and West's fatigue increases

The number of Ukrainians who believe in pro-Russian narratives about the conflict between the political and military leadership, that the West is tired of helping Ukraine, and that the Ukrainian government is ready to make concessions to Russia has increased over the past year.

Source: results of a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), conducted on 29 September – 9 October 

Quote from KIIS: "Over the past year, the number of those who believe in the existence of serious conflicts between the country's political leadership and the army command has increased from 14% to 32%. At the same time, the majority of the population of Ukraine – 54% (in September 2022 – 71%) – continue to adhere to the view that the political leadership and the military command act harmoniously as one team."

Details: Between September 2022 and October 2023, there was a slight increase in those who believe the government can make unacceptable compromises – from 5% to 12%.

However, at the same time, the absolute majority of Ukrainians – 80% – continue to believe that the government will not make compromises unacceptable for Ukraine (there were 87% in September 2022), sociologists emphasise.

The share of those who believe that the West is getting tired of Ukraine, that its support is weak, and that the West wants Ukraine to make concessions to Russia has also grown significantly, from 15% in September 2022 to 30% in October 2023.

But even here, sociologists emphasise that the majority of the country's population currently – 63% (in September 2022 – 73%) –  believe that the West continues to help Ukraine and wants the war to end on terms acceptable to Ukraine.

"There is an increasing trend in all regions in the share of those who believe that there are conflicts between the political authorities and the army command, as well as that the West is getting tired of Ukraine. At the same time, in all oblasts, there are more people who hold the opposite view that there are no conflicts and that the support from the West continues.

In addition, in all regions, the majority of the population is sure that the authorities of Ukraine will not make compromises unacceptable for Ukraine," the KIIS emphasised.

Reference: The survey was conducted from 29 September to 9 October. 1,010 respondents living in all oblasts of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) were interviewed using the telephone interview method based on a random sample of mobile numbers. The survey was carried out with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on Ukrainian territory (within the boundaries controlled by the Ukrainian authorities until 24 February 2022).

Formally, the statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and considering a design effect of 1.1) under normal circumstances did not exceed 3.4% for indicators close to 50%, 3% for indicators close to 25%, 2, 1%  for indicators close to 10%, and 1.5%  for indicators close to 5%.

It is noted that in times of war, in addition to this formal margin of error, a certain systematic deviation is added, but sociologists believe that the results obtained still retain high representativeness and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of public sentiment.

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