Putin and Russians change rhetoric on Russian offensive on Avdiivka – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noticed that the Russians, including their dictator Vladimir Putin, have changed their rhetoric about the Russian army's offensive on the city of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast and "temper expectations" about their advance.

Source: ISW report

Details: Analysts say Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to reduce expectations of a significant Russian advance around Avdiivka.

In an interview with Russian state-controlled TV, Putin claimed that Russian troops were conducting "active defence" on the Avdiivka, Kupiansk and Zaporizhzhia fronts.

Experts believe that Putin's description of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka as "active defence" rather than "active combat operations" may be an attempt to reduce expectations of a significant Russian advance.

"Russian forces are unlikely to make significant breakthroughs or cut off Ukrainian forces in the settlement in the near term, and potential advances at scale would likely require a significant and protracted commitment of personnel and materiel," the reports stated.

The ISW reports that the Russian information space, in general, is also tempering its initial optimism about the prospects for Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka.

The review noted that Russian troops pursued the offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka on 15 October but have not made any further progress so far amid a likely slowdown in Russian operations in the area.

Both Ukrainian military observers and Russian sources said Russian troops had failed to achieve the desired hasty breakthrough and faced heavy casualties and likely a slower-than-expected pace of advance.

However, Russian troops are likely to carry on their offensive at this reduced pace in the near term and remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the area, although they are unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough or encircle Avdiivka.

Analysts also point out that the slowdown in Russian offensive operations may result from a temporary adjustment to the tactical situation, and the Russians may intensify their attempts to surround Avdiivka in the coming days.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 15 October:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
• The Russian information space writ large is also metering its initial optimism about the prospects of Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka on 15 October but have yet to make further gains amid a likely decreasing tempo of Russian operations in the area.
• Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations at this decreased tempo in the near term, however, and will remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the area despite being unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough or encircle Avdiivka at this time.
• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 15 October and slightly advanced south of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 15 October and advanced in some areas.
• The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) is sending a reportedly Kremlin-affiliated priest to Crimea, likely as part of continued Russian efforts to persecute religious communities in occupied Ukraine.

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