Russia prepares everything for open mobilisation but not ready to announce it now
Russia has prepared everything to announce open mobilisation, but it will not happen in the near future.
Source: Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda
Quote: "All the lists of possible conscripts have been clarified, and all this has been transferred to electronic records. In addition, the legal requirements for evading military service and desertion have been significantly tightened.
Is there a need [for open mobilisation now – ed.]? Probably not. The Russian presidential election, which will take place next spring, has an impact. Because mobilisation is a complex process: it has an influence on the socio-political situation in Russia and is a very powerful blow to its economy (because the most efficient population is called up). Russia is probably still taking all this into account."
Details: At the same time, Skibitskyi said that covert mobilisation in Russia is still ongoing, but "the number of Russian armed forces has not increased significantly during this period".
The goal that the Russian Federation has now set itself is to "transfer all the mobilised people who have been drafted into the Russian armed forces during this period to a contractual basis".
Background:
- On 21 September, the UK Ministry of Defence noted that after a year of mobilisation, the Russian army is having difficulties due to the lack of rotation.
- On 3 October, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said that Russia had no need for additional mobilisation, as the army supposedly has the necessary number of soldiers to wage war against Ukraine.
- UK intelligence stated that Russia would avoid announcing mobilisation until after the presidential election.
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