Russians trying to draw Ukrainian defenders away from Robotyne

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Russian invaders are escalating the situation around Avdiivka and in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast to draw Ukrainian Defence Forces away from Robotyne.

Source: ISW

Details: On 9 October, Russian troops launched localised offensive operations near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast and southwest of Orikhiv in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which were likely aimed at pushing Ukrainian troops away from Robotyne.

The Russians intensified offensive operations northwest of Avdiivka in the area of Ocheretyne, Tonenke and Berdychiv and the area southwest of Avdiivka on the Vodiane-Opytne line.

They also attacked southwest of Orikhiv on the Piatykhatky-Zherebianky line, with Russian military bloggers claiming that Russian troops had advanced two kilometres in the area.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has confirmed that up to three Russian battalions have launched an attack and there is video footage of fighting in the area, but at the time of writing, ISW had not seen any evidence of Russian troops advancing.

Analysts added that the encirclement of Avdiivka, one of the most heavily fortified sections of the front in Donetsk Oblast, will likely require more forces than Russia has currently committed to the Avdiivka-Donetsk operation.

Quote: "The increased Russian offensive operations in the Avdiivka and Zherebianky areas coincide with other localised offensive efforts in Luhansk Oblast and eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, all likely aimed at fixing Ukrainian forces and preventing Ukrainian command from transferring reserves to critical areas of the front in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 10 October:

• Russian forces launched localised offensive operations in the Avdiivka area of Donetsk Oblast and southwest of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 9 October, which are likely intended to fix Ukrainian forces away from the Robotyne area.
• The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed up to three Russian battalions conducted an attack in the Avdiivka direction, and ISW has observed footage of fighting in the area, but ISW has not observed any confirmation of these claimed Russian advances as of this writing.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russian military leadership may have once again replaced the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA), suggesting ongoing pervasive Russian command and control issues in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced plans to open a new corridor through Moldova and Romania for the export of Ukrainian grain.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on 10 October.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Luhansk Oblast occupation authorities are cracking down against Ukrainian underground communication networks.

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