Production growth will not help Russia overcome munitions deficiency

Russia will be able to increase the production of artillery shells to 2 million pieces per year, but for a war of such intensity as it conducts in Ukraine this will not be enough, sources of Reuters say.

Source: Reuters, citing an unnamed Western official, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The official, who requested anonymity, says Russia fired about 10-11 million rounds during its war in Ukraine last year alone.

"If you expended 10 million rounds last year and you're in the middle of a fight and you can only produce 1 to 2 million rounds a year, I don't think that's a very strong position," the source emphasised.

The official added that more expenditures by the Russian defence industry might also enable Moscow to construct nearly 200 tanks annually, which would be twice as many as some earlier Western predictions. But even that is a far cry from what it needs in light of the significant losses it sustained in Ukraine.

"When you've lost 2,000 tanks, you've got a decade before you get to where you started," the official said, adding that the Russian Federation lost a total of about 4,000 armoured vehicles, more than a hundred aircraft and about 270,000 personnel killed and wounded.

The article does not specify on which sources the named estimates are based.

Estimates of casualties and armoured forces correlate with Kyiv's estimates: more than 268,000 personnel and more than 4500 pieces of equipment as of 9 September. At the same time, Ukrainian estimates of Russian aircraft losses are much higher than the figure of "over a hundred" mentioned in the article – 315, not counting helicopters.

The source of the journalists also said that Moscow's negotiations with North Korea are most likely concerning artillery shells and are evidence of the difficult situation of the Russian Federation.

"It has to go to these dubious partners in order to prop up its catastrophic invasion of Ukraine. And it will cost a fortune because North Korea will squeeze out a good deal," the official said.

He also recalled the difficult state of the Russian economy, which in the future creates risks of social instability and growing dissatisfaction with the authorities.

Background:

• The Ministry of Defence of Lithuania has announced the supply of 1.5 million projectiles to Ukraine within the framework of the new military aid package.
• The Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency believes that the recent successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suggest a "realistic possibility" of a breakthrough in the rest of the Russian defence lines by the end of the year, although it would be extremely difficult.

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