Ukrainian Defence Forces advance near Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia Oblast – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have confirmed the advance of Ukrainian Defence Forces near the city of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, and the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Source: ISW

Details: The report stated that Ukrainian troops extended their counteroffensive operations and advanced near Bakhmut and the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 3 September. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces were conducting offensive operations on the Melitopol front.

Geolocation data dated 2 and 3 September indicates that Ukrainian forces are in control of the southern part of the settlement of Klishchiivka. Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for the Tavriia Group of Ukrainian Forces, said the Ukrainian army had secured gains in the area of the settlement of Verbove (18 kilometres southeast of the city of Orikhiv).

The report also states that Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavriia Operational and Strategic Group of Forces, said that Russian troops had spent 60% of their time and resources on creating a range of defensive positions that Ukrainian forces have now breached and only 20% each on two defensive lines further south.

Analysts point out that this breached series of Russian defensive lines consisted of a system of interconnected Russian trenches and dugouts protected by anti-tank ditches and dense minefields, and Tarnavskyi's statement confirms ISW's earlier observation that Russian forces may not have conducted similarly sophisticated preparations on subsequent series of defensive lines, particularly in terms of minefield density.

ISW's analysts say the Russian military appears to be conducting a large-scale recruitment drive through covert mobilisation, although the training and allocation of these new soldiers are uncertain.

On 3 September, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, claimed that 280,000 people have signed contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry since the beginning of 2023.

Medvedev noted that this figure includes people either formerly in the Russian military reserve or who fought as military volunteers.

The level of training and combat experience of these contract soldiers is likely to vary, as the Russian military advertises contracts for a period of several months to two years, analysts suggest.

To quote the ISW’s key takeaways for 4 September:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on 3 September.
• Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to operate on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River in occupied Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast on 3 September.
• The Russian military appears to be recruiting personnel at scale through ongoing crypto-mobilisation efforts, although the quality and allocation of these new servicemembers remain unclear.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk, in the western Donetsk–eastern Zaporizhia border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on 3 September.
• Russian law enforcement is patrolling and guarding polling stations in occupied Ukraine to prevent citizens from expressing opposition to the elections and recording the voting process.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on 3 September that he has removed the current Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov from his post and intends to replace him with Rustem Umerov. Umerov is currently the chairman of Ukraine’s State Property Fund.

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