Russians reduce pace of offensive operations on Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noticed that the Russians have recently reduced the pace of offensive actions on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line

Source: ISW

Details: The report indicates that Ukrainian forces continued their offensive operations near Bakhmut and in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 28 September.

In addition, analysts say, in recent days, Russian troops have reduced the pace of their local offensive operations on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian and Ukrainian officials have  increasingly reported fewer Russian ground attacks on the Kupiansk and Lyman fronts, suggesting that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is distracting Russian forces from the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and significantly weakening Russian offensive efforts along that line. 

The ISW's preliminary assessment indicates that the Russian offensive operations on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line were aimed at pushing Ukrainian troops to this line and diverting them from more important areas of the front.

However, more Russian aircraft activity has been observed in Kharkiv, Luhansk and Kherson Oblasts and, apparently, less activity in the areas of the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations.

Over the past week, Russian troops have increasingly carried out airstrikes against targets on the western (right) bank of Dnipro in Kherson Oblast and on the rear Ukrainian ground lines of communication on the Kupiansk front.

Russian aircraft continue to strike Ukrainian rear areas in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, although references to repelling Ukrainian attacks in front-line areas have become less frequent in Russian reports than at the start of the counteroffensive.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 28 September:

• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 28 September. 
• Russian forces have reduced the tempo of their localized offensive operations on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in recent days.
• Russian aviation is increasingly active in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Kherson oblasts and apparently less active in areas of western Zaporizhzhia Oblast where Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations.
• Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of 27-28 September. 
• The Russian State Duma adopted a bill in its first reading that criminalises promoting and justifying extremism, likely to encourage self-censorship in the Russian information space.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signalled his support for Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov during a meeting on 28 September amid continued speculations about Kadyrov’s health and public backlash against the recent behaviour of Kadyrov’s son.
• The Russian information space continued to criticise Armenian leadership and lament Russia’s perceived decreased influence in Armenia.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and did not make confirmed gains.
• Russian sources stated that the Russian Aerospace (VKS) Forces received a new batch of fifth-generation Su-57 stealth fighter and fourth-generation Su-35S air defence fighter aircraft on 28 September. 

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