Estonian intelligence doubts either Ukraine or Russia will have major success on front soon

Estonian intelligence has suggested that the situation at the front will not change in favour of either Ukraine or Russia in the near future.

Source: European Pravda; ERR, citing assessment by Colonel Ants Kiviselg, new Chief of the Military Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defence Forces

Details: Kiviselg noted that the most active fighting continues around Robotyne, where Ukrainian forces continue to break through Russian defences; active fighting is taking place near Novoprokopivka and Verbove. Near Novoprokopivka, Ukrainian forces have achieved high ground in several important areas, which should facilitate their further success.

Kiviselg also said that the Russians are regrouping and redeploying forces in the hope of preventing the Ukrainian defence forces from advancing towards Melitopol. In his opinion, the deployment of so-called elite units, such as the 76th and 7th Airborne Assault Divisions, shows that the Russian command believes that the tactical success of the Ukrainian offensive in this area is possible.

Kiviselg added that the situation is likely to force the Russian command to take more risks with aviation.

There are no significant changes in other parts of the front; systematic and complex work is underway to isolate Bakhmut, but no quick successes should be expected, he said.

At the same time, Kiviselg noted the heavy losses of the Russian 72nd Motorised Rifle Brigade and noted that it was one of the first units to be "assembled" from volunteer battalions recruited in the Russian regions in 2022.

Estonian intelligence also noted that Russia is trying to increase pressure on the Kupiansk-Kreminna front and seize the initiative there; a part of the newly created 25th Combined Arms Army, which has not yet had combat experience, has recently been moved there. Assault units recruited from convicts have also been detected there, which may indicate Russia’s intention to use them for the offensive, as it used convicts conscripted by Wagner, and to preserve the regular troops.

Kiviselg also noted that Ukraine has begun to use asymmetric methods for operations behind Russian lines, particularly on the western coast of Crimea and the western Black Sea, which has pushed the Russian Black Sea Fleet closer to the eastern coast.

Kiviselg said that in the short term, Ukraine is likely to continue its offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and probably achieve tactical success there.

"However, we now see that the situation at the front is relatively difficult and no major operational breakthrough is expected in the coming weeks," he said.

Background: In its latest review, UK intelligence analysed the intensification of Ukraine's and Russia's attacks in each other’s deep rear.

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