Russia risks dividing its forces by attacking Kupiansk – UK intelligence
The Russian Federation risks dividing its own forces by pouring resources into the area around Kupiansk as long as fighting continues on the Orikhiv front, the UK Ministry of Defence believes.
Source: UK Defence Intelligence review on 2 September, as reported by European Pravda
Details: The MoD notes that Ukrainian troops are continuing offensive operations on the Orikhiv front in southern Ukraine, with their units entering the first line of Russian defence.
"Ukrainian Forces continue to take offensive action on the Orikhiv axis in southern Ukraine, with units reaching the first Russian main defensive line. Russian forces, primarily composed of the 58 Combined Arms Army and Russian Airborne Forces elements, seek to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive whilst maintaining their own offensive on the northern axis around Kupiansk," the review says.
Russian troops are likely trying to distract Ukraine from a counteroffensive, thereby forcing it to divide its forces between Orikhiv and Kupiansk, according to UK Intelligence. However, there is a risk that Russia will disperse its forces.
"Given that Russia has made modest gains near Kupiansk since the Ukrainian counteroffensive began in June, they are highly likely seeking to capitalise on these by continuing to resource the axis. However, Russia risks dividing its forces as it seeks to prevent a Ukrainian breakthrough," - says the UK intelligence review.
Reminder:
- The Estonian Defence Intelligence Centre, commenting on the war in Ukraine, notes that the most important events are now unfolding near Robotyne, which is on the Orikhiv front in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As the department emphasised, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could sufficiently exhaust the Russian units holding the defence in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to break through their positions.
- Earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged caution about rushing to conclusions about Ukraine's counteroffensive operations in the summer of 2023, recalling how Ukraine has already exceeded expectations more than once.
- Dmytro Kuleba criticised the statements about the allegedly slow pace of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and advised such commentators to "shut up".
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