NYT: Russia defies sanctions and produces more missiles than prior to 2022

Russia has managed to overcome sanctions pressure and can now produce more missiles than before the start of a full-scale invasion.

Source: The New York Times, citing officials who spoke on condition of anonymity

Quote: "Russia has managed to overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West to expand its missile production beyond prewar levels, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable to intensified attacks in the coming months."

"As a result of the sanctions, American officials estimate that Russia was forced to dramatically slow its production of missiles and other weaponry at the start of the war in February 2022 for at least six months. But by the end of 2022, Moscow’s military industrial manufacturing began to pick up speed again, American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose the sensitive assessment now concede."

Details: The US is betting on strengthening Ukrainian air defence in response to such a situation. It is indicated that Russia, through an extensive smuggling network, receives scarce components through third countries, such as Armenia and Türkiye

American officials fear increased production of Russian missiles could mean new strikes on Ukraine's energy system in autumn and winter.

The article indicates it is difficult for Western countries to close all ways of circumventing sanctions due to the specifics of the goods themselves.

"One of the challenges for the U.S. government is that Russia does not need higher-end chips that are easier to track, but commoditised chips that can be used in a wide range of things, not just guided missiles," the article reads.

Apart from that, Western officials indicate that Russia has doubled the production of projectiles (up to 2 million per year), which are larger volumes than the United States and Europe can produce. At the same time, such volumes are still not enough, since Russia spent 10 million shells in one year. Furthermore, the increase in military production in Russia cost the Russian economy dearly, especially in the conditions of a sharp increase in interest rates in the country.

Background: 

• In June 2023, Ukraine’s intelligence reported that Russia expanded the production of Kalibr and Kh-101 missiles by three- to four-fold and improved the use of missile weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles.

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