Russian sources once again talk of mobilisation of reservists and professional soldiers in large numbers – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has noted that the Russian information space is again talking about the large-scale mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of people both from among reservists and for professional soldiers, adding that Russia's "new reserve mobilisation wave" depends on their dictator Vladimir Putin.

Source: ISW

Details: ISW noted that Russian insider sources claimed that the Kremlin's inner circle is once again actively discussing the need for mobilisation and preparation for this second wave of reserve mobilisation ahead of the six-month autumn conscription cycle, which begins on 1 October.

A Russian Telegram channel, which allegedly has some connections to Russian security sources, said some Russian officials are "seriously" preparing for a second wave of reserve mobilisation and have hopes to conduct another wave of mobilisation during the autumn season.

The report said Russian officials therefore want to mobilise 170,000 – 175,000 reservists and move the autumn conscription date from 1 October to 1 November in order to accommodate reserve mobilisation processes, while conducting a "contract mobilisation" to recruit an additional 130,000 soldiers through coercive measures.

ISW noted that such plans are not new and do not show that Russian President Vladimir Putin has finally decided to conduct a second wave of mobilisation in the near future.

ISW believes that Putin's response is not necessarily a media pretext for preparing Russian society for forced mobilisation, but rather may indicate the Russian president’s commitment to the constant practice of mobilisation through digital communications.

"Any new reserve mobilisation wave depends on Putin," ISW noted.

Putin has also stepped up several stock information operations that misrepresented the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failed attempt, and accused Ukraine of being unwilling to negotiate while he was giving his speech at the Eastern Economic Forum.

Putin stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has not achieved any significant results, and presented grossly exaggerated losses in Ukrainian personnel and equipment.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways from 12 September:

• Russian insider sources claimed that the Kremlin’s inner circle is again actively disagreeing about the necessity of and preparations for a second wave of reserve mobilisation ahead of the semi-annual fall conscription cycle, which starts on 1 October.
• These plans, proposals, and disagreements are not new and do not indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ultimately decided to conduct a second reserve mobilisation wave in the near term.
• Putin also reamplified several boilerplate information operations falsely framing the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failed endeavour and accused Ukraine of being unwilling to negotiate during his address at the Eastern Economic Forum.
• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Primorsky Krai on 12 September and will meet with Putin in the coming days, likely to discuss the provision of North Korean artillery munitions to Russia.
• Russian authorities have reportedly adjusted air defence systems around Moscow in light of recent increased drone strikes on the city, likely in part to assuage complaints in the Russian information space about the ineffectiveness of air defences around the capital.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia and advanced in some areas on 12 September.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on 12 September and advanced near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russian officials introduced a bill to the Russian State Duma that would punish Russian servicemen fighting within volunteer armed formations for losing or deliberately destroying military equipment or supplies.
• Russian occupation officials continue to deport children from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia under the guise of recreational programs.

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