West no longer expects Ukrainian breakthrough on battlefield before cold weather, and fears accusations – CNN
The officials in Ukraine's partner countries have become increasingly aware of the growing unrealism of their initial expectations for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, no longer anticipating major progress on the battlefield by autumn and fearing a "blame game" on Ukraine's part.
Source: CNN
Details: Following weeks of Ukraine's much-anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials are receiving increasingly "sobering" assessments of the potential of Ukrainian forces to retake significant territory, four senior US and Western officials familiar with the latest intelligence told CNN.
"They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them [Ukrainians] to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely," a senior Western diplomat told CNN.
"Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face," said lawmaker Mike Quigley, a Democrat from Illinois who has recently come back from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armoured forces.
According to Quigley, "This is the most difficult time of the war."
The main challenge for Ukrainian forces remains breaking through Russia's multi-layered defensive lines in the country's eastern and southern parts, covered with tens of thousands of mines and an extensive network of trenches.
CNN reports that the Ukrainian army suffered "staggering losses" there, pushing the Ukrainian command to hold back some units to regroup and mitigate losses.
Quote from a senior Western diplomat: "Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line. Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard."
Details: A senior US official said the United States recognised the struggles faced by Ukrainian forces albeit remained hopeful for further progress.
"We all recognize this is going harder and slower than anyone would like – including the Ukrainians – but we still believe there’s time and space for them to be able make progress," the official said.
Many officials said the coming autumn, when weather and combat conditions are expected to deteriorate, leaves Ukrainian forces with limited time to make headway.
Furthermore, Western officials say the slow progress exposes the complexity of transforming the Ukrainian army into a combined mechanised fighting force, often with only eight weeks of training on tanks and other new weapons systems supplied by the West.
A senior US military official suggested that the lack of progress on the ground is one of the reasons why Ukrainian forces are increasingly striking Russian territory "to try and show Russian vulnerability".
CNN says the latest estimates are a significant change from the optimism seen at the start of the counteroffensive.
These officials say these expectations were "unrealistic" and are now contributing to pressure from some in the West to start peace talks, including considering territorial concessions. "Putin is waiting for this. He can sacrifice bodies and buy time," Quigley said.
Some officials are concerned that the widening gap between expectations and results will lead to a "blame game" between Ukrainian officials and their Western backers, possibly generating friction within an alliance that remained largely intact for almost two years after the war began.
Quote from a senior Western official: "The problem, of course, here is the prospect of the blame game that the Ukrainians would then blame it on us."
Background: At the Aspen Security Forum in July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pointed to the slow flow of weapons from the West as a reason for the slow advancement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: "We planned to start [the counteroffensive] in the spring, but we didn't. Because, frankly, we don't have enough ammunition and weapons, and we don't have enough properly trained brigades. I mean properly trained in [operating] these weapons."
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