Kremlin tries to hush up Russia's failures in war to avoid sowing panic – ISW

The Kremlin has become even more sensitive to the controversies emerging in Russia's information space between influential media figures and military bloggers over reports of setbacks in Crimea and the war in Ukraine, and is trying to contain panic.

Source: Institute for Study of War (ISW)

Details: The report says that the dispute between prominent figures in the Russian media underscores the Kremlin's sensitivity to reports of failures in Crimea in particular, and perhaps in Ukraine in general, and has further exposed fault lines within the milbloggers' community.

On 2 August, a pro-war military blogger called out other prominent counterparts who had criticised the Russian government's handling of the conflict, calling them "imbeciles" who supported "provocative publications" and "frantic criticism of the [Russian Ministry of Defence]". This happened after milbloggers had posted images reportedly depicting the effects of recent Ukrainian strikes near Sevastopol and on the Chonhar Bridge, information which some sources suggested could "irresponsibly spread panic".

Analysts say that such a dispute shows that the issue of strikes on Crimea is a distinctly sensitive point in the pro-military Russian media.

The ISW reiterates that the vast majority of Russian military bloggers remained silent after the attack by the defence forces on the Chonhar Bridge on 29 July.

"The highest echelons of the Russian military command may have directed milbloggers to stay silent about problems that can be directly blamed on the Russian military command," the report states.

The experts state that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky announced the creation of two new VDV regiments and the reconstitution of the 104th VDV Division by the end of 2023.

The report concluded that Teplinsky's pronouncement shows that he maintains his position and public support for the Russian Ministry of Defence after rumours of his arrest, possibly due to his ties to the Wagner group, in July.

Experts also drew attention to the fact that the Ministry of Defence of Russia officially provided weapons and vehicles to territorial defence forces in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on 2 August.

"The repeated allocation of additional military assets to Belgorod and Kursk oblasts indicates that the Kremlin is growing increasingly concerned about continued attacks on Russia's border with Ukraine," the report states.

Analysts say that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and were reported to have advanced near Bakhmut on 2 August.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 2 August:

• A dispute among prominent voices in the Russian information space highlights the Kremlin’s sensitivity to Russian reporting about setbacks in Crimea in particular and possibly in Ukraine in general and has further exposed fault lines within the military blogger's community. This dispute, alongside the accompanying allegations, suggests that the issue of strikes against Crimea is a distinctly neuralgic point in the pro-war Russian information space.
• The highest echelons of the Russian military command may have directed milbloggers to stay silent about problems that can be directly blamed on the Russian military command.
• Russian forces conducted a drone strike on the night of 1-2 August that destroyed port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, including 40,000 tonnes of grain.
• Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky announced the formation of up two new VDV regiments and the re-establishment of the 104th VDV Division by the end of 2023. Teplinsky’s announcement indicates that he maintains his position and the public support of the Russian MoD following rumours of his arrest, possibly as a result of his affiliations with the Wagner Group, in mid-July.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence officially provided weapons and vehicles to the Belgorod and Kursk Oblast Territorial Defence forces on 2 August, reallocating conventional military assets as a part of the Kremlin’s efforts to steadily expand Russia’s internal security capabilities following the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion on 24 June.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on 2 August.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove line, near Kreminna, around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and advanced in some areas.
• Russian civilians are increasingly targeting military registration and enlistment centres across Russia as a result of what Russian sources claim are targeted scam calls.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin pushed the Kremlin narrative of "Novorossiya" and announced Russian government initiatives to provide books to occupied territories of Ukraine on 2 August.

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