ISW predicts disappearance of Wagner as quasi-independent Private Military Company

Wagner is likely to no longer exist as a quasi-independent parallel military entity after the almost certain assassination by Russian President Vladimir Putin of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Private Military Company’s (PMC) sponsor, its founder Dmitry Utkin and head of logistics and security Valeriy Chekalov, says a daily report by the Institute for the Study of War.

Source: ISW

Quote: "The death of Wagner’s central leadership disrupts Wagner’s ability to reverse the effects of the Kremlin’s and the Russian Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) campaign to weaken, subsume, and destroy the organisation following the 24 June armed rebellion."

Details: The Russian Defence Ministry has reportedly set up private military companies that recruit current and former Wagner members to take control of Wagner's operations abroad.

Russian sources claim that the Kremlin has refused to pay the Belarusian government for the deployment of Wagner in Belarus, and financial problems have already led to a reduction in payments, forcing Wagner fighters to resign.

Satellite images from 1 and 23 August show that Wagner members have dismantled almost a third of their tents at a camp in Tseli, Asipovichy, Belarus, over the previous month. The Ukrainian Resistance Center also reported on 23 August that an unidentified number of Wagner fighters in camps in Belarus have begun preparing to return to Russia.

"[This is] suggesting that the effort to weaken Wagner may have resulted in a notable flight of Wagner personnel from the contingent in Belarus, "the ISW notes.

Quote: "The central Wagner leadership had brought Wagner to the height of its independence during the offensive to capture Bakhmut and was attempting to retain some semblance of that independence in the aftermath of Wagner’s rebellion.

The elimination of this central leadership likely ends any remaining means Wagner had to operate independently of the Russian MoD.

It remains unclear whether the Kremlin intends for Wagner to completely dissipate or intends to reconstitute it as a much smaller organisation completely subordinate to the Russian MoD. A third option — restoring Wagner as a quasi-independent organisation under a new commander loyal to the Kremlin — is possible but unlikely."

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