Putin almost certainly gave order to kill Prigozhin – ISW report

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin took revenge for the humiliation of the Wagner Group’s mutiny and ordered the assassination of their leadership.

Source: the ISW

Details: The ISW noted that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, and its founder, Dmitry Utkin, were reportedly killed after Russian security forces shot down a plane carrying Wagner Group's leadership over Tver Oblast.

The Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) reported on 23 August that all passengers – Yevgeny Prigozhin, Dmitry Utkin, Sergei Propustin, Evgeny Makaryan, Alexander Totmin, Valery Chekalov and Nikolai Matyuseyev – died in the crash, along with all three crew members.

In addition, Russian sources claimed that a second Embraer aircraft (registration number RA-02748) belonging to the Wagner Group took off from Moscow but turned around and landed at Moscow's Ostafievo airport at approximately the same time as the hit occurred.

Flight tracking data showed that this second plane arrived in St Petersburg at 18:27 and flew back to Moscow 20 minutes later, arriving, however, at 20:02.

Analysts pointed out that the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner Group and weakening Prigozhin's power since the mutiny, and the assassination of Wagner Group's senior leadership was likely the final step in eliminating the PMC as an independent organisation.

Experts also suggested that Prigozhin was probably trying to counteract the destruction of the Wagner Group by the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Kremlin.

It is noted in the report that the future of the Wagner Group without a leader remains uncertain.

Experts agreed that Prigozhin and Utkin were undoubtedly the faces of the Wagner Group, and their murder will have significant consequences for the PMC’s command and for Wagner as a brand.

In addition, Wagner Group's commanders and mercenaries may begin to fear for their lives or become demoralised.

Quote: "The Russian Ministry of Defence’s and Kremlin’s inroads into Wagner’s operations and the absence of Prigozhin – who would fight for new opportunities for Wagner personnel – may further lead to the degradation of the Wagner grouping.

Putin almost certainly ordered the Russian military command to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane. Elements of the Russian military, especially Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, would be extremely unlikely to execute Prigozhin without Putin’s order."

"The official confirmation of Surovikin’s dismissal in Russian state media on the same day as Prigozhin’s assassination is likely no coincidence. The Kremlin likely intends for both publicised punishments to send a clear message that those who were involved in the 24 June rebellion have been dealt with and that Wagner’s challenge to the Russian leadership is a settled affair." (Sergei Surovikin is a former commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, dismissed by Putin on 22 August – ed.)

More details: As the analysts stated, Russian sources pointed out that exactly two months had passed since the start of the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion, during which their forces shot down several Russian helicopters and killed at least 13 Russian servicemen.

Experts said that the decision to say that Russian air defence was responsible for Prigozhin's murder allowed the Russian Ministry of Defence to directly avenge one of the worst days for Russian aviation since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Experts also noted that the Kremlin is probably creating conditions to remove the obvious responsibility for Prigozhin's murder from Putin and the Russian military.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 23 August:

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting senior Wagner commanders over Tver Oblast.
• The Russian Ministry of Defenсe and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner private military company (PMC) and weakening Prigozhin’s authority since the rebellion – and the assassination of Wagner’s top leadership was likely the final step to eliminate Wagner as an independent organisation.
• Prigozhin was likely attempting to counter the Russian Ministry of Defenсe’s and the Kremlin’s destruction of Wagner and Wagner’s future remains uncertain.
• Putin almost certainly ordered the Russian military command to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane.
• Putin's almost certain order for the Russian Ministry of Defence to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane is likely a public attempt to reassert his dominance and exact vengeance for the humiliation that the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion on June 24 caused Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defence.
• The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to deflect overt responsibility for Prigozhin’s assassination away from Putin and the Russian military.
• Further tactically significant Ukrainian gains in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast are widening the Ukrainian breach of Russian defensive lines in the area and threatening Russian secondary lines of defence.
• Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian S-400 air defence system in Crimea on 23 August.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on 23 August and did not make any confirmed advances.

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