US believes there are many alternative routes for Ukrainian grain exports

The US government is negotiating with Türkiye, Ukraine and its neighbouring countries to use more alternative routes for Ukrainian grain exports.

Source: The Wall Street Journal with reference to US officials

Details: Most of the grain will be shipped down the river and across the Black Sea to nearby ports in Romania, from where it will be transported to other countries.

Despite the longer and more expensive journey, this route could become an alternative to the Black Sea corridor. The plan envisages an additional route for exporting 4 million tonnes of grain per month via the Danube River by October.

In addition, the US plan partially builds on the European Union's initiative to create road, rail and sea routes known as "solidarity corridors" to ensure the unimpeded movement of grain and other goods to and from Ukraine. Indeed, it is thanks to the EU routes that the largest volume of grain transported was 4.2 million tonnes in November 2022.

The Danube route accounts for the big part of these exports – approximately 60%.

Moreover, European officials admit that Ukraine could export 5-5.5 million tonnes of grain per month.

The WSJ pointed out that the Black Sea grain corridor at its peak allowed Ukraine to export about 6 million tonnes of grain per month from three ports in Odesa Oblast.

At the same time, the US is considering all possible options, including military solutions to protect ships operating in Ukrainian ports, a WSJ source said. They declined to elaborate on the details of these options or name the countries that might be involved.

It is noted that the parties began to consider these options after Russia withdrew from the agreement that guaranteed the security of food supplies through the Black Sea.

"The reality is Russia has decided to attack the global food supply," a source in Washington said.

At the same time, Türkiye and the UN are simultaneously trying to convince Russia to return to the grain deal.

In particular, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan helped to conclude the agreement last year, and now he is expected to succeed before the start of the Ukrainian grain harvest in early September, diplomats said.

However, the WSJ noted that the planning of alternative routes is a sign that the US, Ukraine and European countries are preparing for a scenario in which Russia does not return to the agreement to transport Ukraine's summer and autumn harvests.

Background:

• On 16 August, the first merchant ship within the temporary corridor left the ports of Greater Odesa and headed for the Bosphorus.
• The container ship, which had been in the port of Odesa since 23 February 2022, left the Vorontsov Lighthouse and is heading for the Bosphorus. It is carrying more than 30,000 tonnes of cargo (2,114 containers), including food.

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