Ukraine's counteroffensive may be successful without F-16s – NYT

Ukraine can prevail in its counteroffensive without the F-16s, and their presence would not have a decisive impact on the situation on the battlefield.

Source: The New York Times with reference to current and former officials in Ukraine, the US and Europe, as well as Western military analysts

Quote: "Would F-16s have made the difference in Ukraine’s counter-offensive? Most military experts doubt that they would have, and say that Kyiv can still prevail without them."

Details: As the New York Times stated, Joe Biden's administration waited more than a year before allowing NATO countries to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. By the time the pilots are trained on these aircraft, it will be too late to help and protect ground troops going through this phase of the fighting.

"All of which has raised a question: Without significant air power – a pillar of the warfare tactics that the West has urged Ukraine to adopt – can the counteroffensive prevail? The answer appears to be yes, as current and former officials in Ukraine, the United States and Europe, as well as Western defense analysts, said in interviews last week," the NYT wrote.

However, the NYT also noted that "it is likely to be far more difficult without the jets".

"It will have to happen without the F-16, but I believe they can," said Philip Breedlove, a retired United States Air Force general and former NATO commander.

However, he added then: "If you expect Ukraine to fight like we fight, then they have to have the tools that we have, and we have not given them those tools."

The NYW writes that some experts said a lack of air power had put Ukraine at a disadvantage this summer against Russian attack helicopters that had been attacking Ukrainian tanks and armoured vehicles. As the UK Ministry of Defence reported, at least some of these helicopters are equipped with anti-tank missiles that are fired either too far or too low to be intercepted by Ukrainian air defences.

Colonel Markus Reisner, who supervises armed forces development at Austria's main military academy, said that with more combat aircraft, Ukraine could better protect its ground forces from these attacks.

"Some American generals, they say, ‘Well, it’s not what the Ukrainians need at the moment.’ I think this is a political statement, it’s not a military logical statement," Reisner added.

As the NYT wrote, both Ukraine and Russia have strong air defences, which largely deter both from conducting air strikes near or behind the lines of contact using manned combat aircraft. For the most part, Ukrainian pilots, who currently fly Soviet-era MiG and Sukhoy fighters, are careful not to get too close to their targets or stay in the air for too long, lest they become targets themselves.

Given these limitations, a Biden administration official said on condition of anonymity that it was unclear whether Ukrainian troops would be able to support the ground forces even if they had F-16s.

After Ukraine suffered heavy casualties at the start of the counteroffensive, trying to take a combined-arms approach, some commanders decided to abandon it and return to the tactics they know best – artillery and rocket attacks to weaken Russia's fighting capacity in a war of attrition, the NYT writes.

This did not come as a complete surprise to military experts, who believe that the problems go far beyond the lack of air power. Retired Colonel Steve Boylan, a trained US Army aviator and a former spokesman for the Army’s Combined Arms Center in Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, said it had taken years for American forces to learn "how to do it effectively – and not in the middle of a fight."

Sending just a handful of F-16s into battle would not make much difference in the war, said Douglas Barrie, a military aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "It’s got to be adequate, it’s got to be up to the task," he said.

Barrie said that if Ukraine had several properly trained and equipped F-16 squadrons, "would it have helped in the counteroffensive? It’s a theoretical question, but the theoretical answer is yes."

Previously: On 11 August, The Washington Post reported that the first group of six Ukrainian pilots will complete training on US F-16 fighter jets at least next summer.

Background:

• The Pentagon recently said that Biden had already agreed to allow the allies to start training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.
• In mid-July, 11 partner countries, together with Ukraine, signed a memorandum defining the conditions for training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.
• The training was supposed to start in August, but as per media reports, the United States has not yet approved the final training plan, as European states have not agreed on all its details.

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