Prigozhin and Wagner Group still have full freedom in Russia

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have seen no signs that the Russian authorities have expelled or detained commanders or ordinary members of the Wagner Group who took part in the rebellion in Russia.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Putin continues to allow Wagner and Prigozhin to operate in Russia and potentially pose a threat to his regime. 

Allowing Prigozhin, his commanders, and as many as 25,000 Wagner fighters who led and participated in the armed rebellion apparent full freedom of movement and communication in Russia shows that Putin has either remarkable (and unwarranted) confidence in their renewed loyalty, desperation to lure as many as possible to his side, or an inability to take action against them."

Details: The ISW has stressed that the consequences of the armed rebellion remain unclear for the Wagner Group and Prigozhin, but Ukraine has already benefited from it.

"Putin’s handling of the Wagner Group – Russia's most effective fighting force at this time – following the June 24 rebellion will likely keep them from fighting in Ukraine for the duration of the current Ukrainian counteroffensive and may permanently degrade Russia’s overall capability to wage war in Ukraine," the ISW said.

The ISW has also noted that the Wagner Group's hasty withdrawal from Bakhmut undermined Russian positions in the area and contributed to the tactically important gains that Ukrainian forces made around the city.

Background:

• The self-proclaimed leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has announced plans to meet with Vladimir Putin in the near future to discuss, among other things, the "Wagner Group issue".
• Representatives of the Wagner Group have not yet arrived to inspect the alleged location of the company's soldiers in a tent camp near the town of Asipovičy, Mahilioŭ Oblast of Belarus.

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