The war cannot drag on for years – adviser to Ukrainian President's Office

Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President, believes that the war in Ukraine cannot drag on for years. 

Source: Podoliak in an interview with Meduza 

Quote: "This war cannot drag on for years – based on the resources of the parties, it is impossible. 

Yes, resource opportunities are growing in Ukraine. It does not quickly receive certain components for conducting hostilities, but it will receive them at an accelerated pace because the military-industrial complexes of Ukraine and its partners are working more and more intensively. It's just that before the war, no one produced tens of thousands of projectiles a month – and now, the perception of the needs of the military industry is completely different [for Ukraine and its allies], and the necessary amount of weapons is being prepared.

At the same time, Russia's resources are gradually decreasing. War is very expensive. Practically everything that Russia had, it has already spent on the war. Buying some or other consumables somewhere to produce additional volumes of high-precision weapons and missiles means trying to find someone on the sanctioned market. Plus, it requires premium payments. Roughly speaking, here, you need to sell your product at a big discount and at the same time buy some spare parts for this or that production at a big premium. All this will affect the economic condition of the Russian Federation." 

Details: According to Podoliak, freezing the conflict is the best scenario for Russia since it cannot completely occupy the territory of Ukraine today. 

"But I don't see the potential for this war to turn into a frozen conflict. Because for Ukraine, this would mean the end of the existence of the state. If Russia gets caught up in this scenario, it will be able to carry out additional militarization and modernization of its army. We fully understand what this can lead to. And after 500 days of war, we are not stupid enough to deliberately go for it," he said.

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