Ukrainian forces conduct counteroffensive on three frontline areas, gradually weakening Russians

The data analysed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that the defence forces of Ukraine conducted a counterattack on three frontline areas on 6 July and thus continued to weaken the Russians in terms of both manpower and equipment.

Source: the ISW

Details: The review notes that self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his forces were not in Belarus as of 6 July.

Russian sources have also reported that Prigozhin is in Russia, although ISW cannot confirm his whereabouts at this time.

The analysts pointed out that Prigozhin's ability to operate freely in Russia indicates that he is still protected by certain security guarantees and/or that the Kremlin continues to prioritise the undermining of his reputation in Russia over physical or legal prosecution.

Ukrainian troops conducted counter-offensive operations on at least three frontline areas on 6 July and continued efforts to gradually weaken Russian manpower and logistics support.

Ukrainian and Russian officials have changed their rhetoric on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and started talking about reducing risks.

According to the ISW, the Russian rhetoric around ZNPP is aimed at preventing Western support for Ukraine and stopping counteroffensive operations in the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Experts also noted that the Russian media outlet Verstka reported that Russian troops and the occupation authorities were conducting a campaign of widespread religious persecution in occupied Ukraine.

According to Verstka, since 24 February 2022, Russian troops and the occupation authorities have committed at least 109 acts of religious persecution and destroyed almost 600 religious buildings in Ukraine.

The ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces were likely to intensify their campaign, and that Russian authorities were conducting religious persecution in a manner that was completely at odds with efforts to present Russian President Vladimir Putin as a true defender of Christianity.

Russian military bloggers have claimed that some of the plans for Russian defence operations in southern Ukraine have serious limitations and may not be as effective as previously portrayed by Russian sources.

In particular, they have claimed that the Russians are unable to rotate their troops in these positions.

In fact, this confirms the ISW's earlier assessment that Russian troops probably lack combat-ready reserves.

According to the analysts, the inability to conduct any rotation is likely to lead to a faster degradation of Russian formations defending against Ukrainian counteroffensive in Ukraine's south.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 6 July:

• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner forces are not in Belarus as of 6 July, indicating that Prigozhin may be failing to uphold the deal Lukashenko mediated between Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin following Wagner’s armed rebellion on 24 June.
• Russian sources also indicated that Prigozhin was in Russia, although the ISW could not confirm Prigozhin’s whereabouts at this time.
• Prigozhin’s ability to freely operate in Russia suggests that Prigozhin is still protected by some security guarantees and/or that the Kremlin continues to prioritise undermining his reputation in Russia over targeting Prigozhin physically or legally.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on 6 July and are continuing efforts to gradually degrade Russian manpower and logistics assets.
• Ukrainian and Russian officials largely de-escalated their rhetoric regarding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on 6 July.
• Russian political actors continue attempts to court or control Russian milbloggers, indicating that many view the milblogger community as a critical constituency.
• Russian opposition media outlet Vertska reported that Russian forces and occupation authorities are conducting a campaign of systematic religious persecution in occupied Ukraine.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that aspects of Russian defensive operations in southern Ukraine have severe limitations and may not be as effective as Russian sources have previously portrayed them.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Visual evidence confirms that Ukrainian forces have advanced southwest of Bakhmut as of 6 July.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks on the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City fronts.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations along the administrative border between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russian officials continue efforts to create territorial defence units in Russian border oblasts.
• Occupation officials continue efforts to forcibly assimilate Ukrainian legal and cultural traditions into the Russian system in occupied territories.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed on 6 July that Russia will transfer all planned tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus by the end of 2023, if not earlier.

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