Ukrainian forces conduct counteroffensive on six frontline areas, achieving success – ISW

Based on an analysis of data from various sources, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that on 2 July, the Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive in six frontline areas and achieved success in some of them.

Source: report by the Institute for the Study of War

Details: The report states that on 2 July, Ukrainian troops conducted counteroffensive operations in six areas of the front, and some of them achieved success.

Experts also recall that Russian troops carried out another series of missile attacks on the south of Ukraine and Kyiv on 2 July.

They also point out that the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) is aiming to strengthen its grip on the country's information space by damaging the reputation of a few Russian military bloggers who have not adopted the MoD's preferred narrative on the purported defeat of a Ukrainian force on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on 1 July.

On 1-2 July, the Russian Defence Ministry claimed that Russian troops successfully repelled the Ukrainian landings near the Antonivka Bridge. 

At the same time, some Russian bloggers, contrary to reports by the Ministry of Defence, noted that the fighting was still ongoing and that Ukrainian forces were holding certain positions at the Antonivka Bridge as of 2 July.

According to experts,  it is likely that the Russian Ministry of Defence is seeking to censor some Kremlin-linked bloggers out of fear that they might expose Russian military failures to Putin during monthly working groups of military bloggers held in the Kremlin.

Experts add that the confrontation between the Russian MoD and the military blogger community over a minor combat operation may be a sign that the Russian military command believes it has no further victories to share with Putin in the middle of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive.

"The Russian MoD’s attempt to overstate a potential tactical Russian victory near the Antonivka Bridge and its efforts to restrict opposing information has backfired," the analysts note.

At the same time, Putin continues to face a choice: either to side with the Russian Defence Ministry to protect his damaged reputation or to maintain support among the ultranationalist milbloggers and their information channels.

According to the report, Putin may therefore choose to continue appeasing the military blogger community and put the blame on the Russian MoD for Ukraine's military setbacks, which is a far simpler task.

This course of action may allow Putin to maintain support for the war among the Russian ultra-nationalist camp at the expense of the Russian Defence Ministry. But there is a risk for Putin: further undermining confidence in the Russian Defence Ministry could allow other ambitious Russian figures to advance their interests at the expense of the ministry, as Prigozhin tried to do.

To quote the ISW’s key takeaways for 13 May:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on 2 July and made gains in some of these areas.
• Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes targeting southern Ukraine and Kyiv on 2 July.
• The Russian MoD’s conflict with the milblogger community over a trivial combat operation may indicate that the Russian military command does not think it has any other successes to report to Putin amidst the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• The Russian MoD’s attempt to overstate a potential tactical Russian victory near the Antonivka Bridge and its efforts to restrict opposing information has backfired.
• Putin continues to face the choice of either siding with the Russian MoD to defend its weakened reputation or maintaining his support among pro-war ultranationalist milbloggers and their patronage networks.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna frontline.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted limited offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast and have advanced as of 2 July.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited offensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia oblasts border area.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain limited positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near the Antonivka Bridge as of 2 July.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russian officials plan to create regional centres for the development of drones in Nizhny Novgorod as well as in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, and Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.
• Ukrainian and Belarusian sources reported that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials and citizens are actively involved in the deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied territories to Belarus.

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