Wagner Group in Belarus poses no threat to Ukraine or Poland

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin and self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko have stepped up their information operations against the West, saying that Ukraine's counter-offensive has supposedly failed and claiming that the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) poses a threat to Poland.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Senior Western and Ukrainian leaders – and ISW – continue to assess that it is too early to evaluate Ukraine’s counteroffensive since Ukraine still has significant uncommitted prepared forces and retains the ability to launch decisive operations at times and places of its choosing." 

"There is no indication that Wagner fighters in Belarus have the heavy weaponry necessary to mount a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland without significant rearmament, as it was a condition of the Putin-Lukashenko-Prigozhin deal ending the armed rebellion that Wagner surrender such weapons to the Russian Ministry of Defence."

Details: The ISW stressed that a photo of Wagner Groups' main base in Tsel, Asipovichy district, shows that the vehicles parked in and around the base are mostly hundreds of cars, small trucks and approximately 35 semi-trailers.

"Wagner forces in Belarus pose no military threat to Poland or Ukraine, for that matter, until and unless they are re-equipped with mechanised equipment," the ISW stated.

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