Counteroffensive may stall due to lack of weapons and training – WSJ

Ukraine's counteroffensive may stall due to the lack of sufficient weapons and training of the Ukrainian military.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Details: When Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the spring of this year, the Western military knew that Kyiv did not have enough training and weapons – from shells to combat aircraft – to dislodge Russian troops. However, they hoped that Ukrainian courage and ingenuity would win.

"They haven’t. Deep and deadly minefields, extensive fortifications and Russian air power have combined to largely block significant advances by Ukrainian troops. Instead, the campaign risks descending into a stalemate with the potential to burn through lives and equipment without a major shift in momentum." the WSJ says.

As the likelihood of any large-scale Ukrainian breakthrough decreases this year, Washington and its allies face the disturbing prospect of a longer war requiring huge new investments in modern weapons and more training to give Kyiv a chance to win.

The publication recalls that US President Joe Biden will participate in the elections in the fall of 2024. According to many people in Washington, the White House's concern about the impact of the war on the election campaign is prompting increasing caution about the amount of support that can be offered to Kyiv.

At the same time, it is noted that American indecision contrasts with a change of views in Europe, where in recent months, more and more leaders have been inclined to believe that Ukraine must win the conflict and Russia must lose to ensure the security of the continent.

But the European military does not have enough resources to provide Ukraine with everything it needs to dislodge the occupation forces from about 20% of the country's territory they control. Western diplomats say that European leaders are likely to significantly increase support for Kyiv if they feel the reluctance of the United States.

At the same time, Ukrainian and Western intelligence says the Russian military has low morale due to exhaustion, poor supplies and civil infightings among Russian leaders.

"Russia appears unable to seize the initiative and attack Ukrainian positions, but its forces remain robust enough to man hundreds of miles of fortifications and large numbers of aircraft, which are keeping Kyiv’s troops at bay", the WSJ said.

The publication also reminds that no Western army would try to break through the established Russian defences without controlling the sky. Ukraine's lack of air defence and anti-aircraft weapons has allowed Russia to dominate in the skies over most of the front.

If Ukraine receives the F-16 fighter jets, their impact on combat operations will depend on many factors, including the number of aircraft delivered, the complexity of their onboard equipment and the weapons systems they will be equipped with. The WSJ writes that employing modern fighters in combat will be also challenging, requiring a different level of synchronisation of Ukrainian operations.

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